| 单词 | probability |
| 例句 | The driver of that car, seeing Montag down, instinctively considered the probability that running over a body at that speed might turn the car upside down and spill them out. Fahrenheit 451 1953-01-01T00:00:00Z The probability that this will be sooner rather than later grows more likely with every passing minute. Orphan Train 2013-04-02T00:00:00Z In this sense, statistics is to probability as engineering is to physics—an applied science based on a more intellectually stimulating foundational discipline. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Nine of us now seem to feel that the defendant is innocent, but we’re just gambling on probabilities. Twelve Angry Men 1955-01-01T00:00:00Z A confusion between the probability of A given B and the probability of B given A is also quite common. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z But it is illusion to think that there is anything fragile about the life of the earth; surely this is the toughest membrane imaginable in the universe, opaque to probability, impermeable to death. The Lives of a Cell 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z Using probability theory, I calculate that, given my assumption, the likelihood of this result is well below 5 percent, a commonly used “level of significance.” Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Given these reasonably valid assumptions, the problem of determining the relevant probability is straightforward. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “In fact, I was horrified. It seemed as if the whole endeavor was founded on possibilities rather than probabilities. Of theory there was a great deal, of proven knowledge not much.” Bomb 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Many mundane mistakes in reasoning can be traced to a shaky grasp of the notion of conditional probability. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z For example, one can calculate the probability that the universe is expanding at nearly the same rate in all different directions at a time when the density of the universe has its present value. A Brief History of Time: And Other Essays 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z However, if it’s known somehow that the person chosen is over six feet four inches tall, then the conditional probability that he or she also weighs more than 250 pounds is considerably higher. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Rhetoric deals with probabilities rather than certainties: with analogy and generalization. Words Like Loaded Pistols 2011-10-20T00:00:00Z Someone who takes a more hard- headed approach may be interested in the following result in probability. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Statistical probability told them that Davis was from upstate; maybe some-thing in his bearing betrayed it, as well. Newjack: Guarding Sing Sing 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z If cards from each of these decks are turned over one at a time in tandem, what is the probability that at least one exact match will occur? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z While the chances of avoiding any particular disease or accident may be encouraging, the probability of avoiding them all is not. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z For large values of N, the probability that Myrtle will find her Mr. Right following this 37 percent rule is also approximately 37 percent. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z I felt cold and dismayed: my worst fears then were probably true: he had in all probability left England and rushed in reckless desperation to some former haunt on the Continent. Jane Eyre 1847-10-16T00:00:00Z Hacking’s identification of probability theory as a particular mode of thought could, however, have served to clarify the intellectual alternatives that were available before the emergence of probability. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z Since Galileo, of course, all sorts of new languages have been invented with which to do science, including algebra, calculus and probability theory. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z Defeasible knowledge, knowledge that might be corrected in the light of new observations, was merely opinion or probability. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z “And, upon my word, they have an air of great probability. Mr. Dixon’s preference of her music to her friend’s, I can answer for being very decided.” Emma 1815-12-23T00:00:00Z The probability of your winning is clearly the same no matter what number you choose, so, to make the calculation specific, assume you always pick the number 4. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z By contrast, if you were simply to run into a girl on the street, the probability that her sibling is a boy would be VS. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z What is the probability that at least one of the men will get his own hat upon leaving? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z But in the early years of the eighteenth century this argument from probability was applied with devastating force. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z I headed toward the river surrounded by the others in a hesitant herd; they sensed that in all probability they were my adversaries in blitzball. A Separate Peace 1959-01-01T00:00:00Z To find the probability that no 4s come up when we roll three dice, we find how much probability is left over. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z In all probability, the truck he rode in was a military vehicle that had been illegally converted into a for-profit people mover. Escape from Camp 14: One Man's Remarkable Odyssey from North Korea to Freedom in the West 2013-03-26T00:00:00Z Adding, we get 75/2i6 for the probability of exactly one 4 coming up on the three dice, and hence for the probability of your winning $1. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z A simple example: the conditional probability of having chosen a king card when it’s known that the card is a face card—a king, queen, or jack— is Vs. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z To cite a simple example, the probability that a person chosen at random from the phone book is over 250 pounds is quite small. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Pascal’s wager on God’s existence, for example, can be cast as a choice between the relative probabilities and consequences of Type I and Type II errors. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The story was clever enough to have had by itself, in all probability, the desired effect; but Poseidon, the most bitter of all the gods against Troy, contrived an addition which made the issue certain. Mythology: Timeless Tales of Gods and Heroes 1942-01-01T00:00:00Z In a small clique of six girls, there was a high probability that we'd all go to the dance. Americanized 2018-02-08T00:00:00Z “Well, she ended up getting brain cancer—the exact kind she was doing the study on. The probability of that was like one in a million or something. How’s that for a coincidence?” Anthem of a Reluctant Prophet 2007-04-30T00:00:00Z The answer lies in determining the probability of doing this well or better by chance. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z ‘Proof’ thus covers both necessary truths and practical tests, and it has the same etymological root as ‘probe’ and ‘probability’. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z Still, statistically the probability that there are other thinking beings out there is good. A Short History of Nearly Everything 2003-05-06T00:00:00Z Still, the point is that all kinds of decisions can be cast into this framework and call for the informal evaluation of probabilities. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z If 20 percent of all sodas dispensed by a vending machine overflow their cups, what is the probability that exactly three of the next ten will overflow? at most, three? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z He was lonely for his wife’s company and political advice: “I want to sit and converse with you about our debates every evening. I sit here alone and brood over political probabilities and conjectures.” Founding Brothers: The Revolutionary Generation 2000-10-17T00:00:00Z Even in these cases, however, the probability of two randomly selected people being linked by two intermediates is unexpectedly high. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z You will use arguments of analogy and probability and induction, as discussed earlier. Words Like Loaded Pistols 2011-10-20T00:00:00Z Incidentally, why is the question never put as follows: What is the probability that Shakespeare, by randomly flexing his muscles, might accidentally have found himself swinging through the trees like a monkey? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Though I attributed it more to the laws of probability than from any human kindness. The Name of the Wind 2007-03-27T00:00:00Z This 50 percent decline in police translated into a roughly equal decline in the probability that a given criminal would be caught. Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything 2005-04-12T00:00:00Z This latter factor is needed, since we’re interested in the probability that ten questions are answered correctly, not necessarily the first ten. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The first is the probability of not being afflicted with any of a variety of diseases, accidents, or other misfortunes. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “You know the probability of getting me down there is point oh one percent, right?” she replied. The Vanderbeekers of 141st Street 2017-10-03T00:00:00Z Good institutions are not a random variable that could have popped up anywhere around the globe, in Denmark or in Somalia, with equal probability. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies 1997-03-01T00:00:00Z “I am not speaking of its prudence; merely its probability.” Emma 1815-12-23T00:00:00Z In such a system, the outcome is a chancy kind of order, always on the verge of descending into chaos, held taut against probability by the unremitting, constant surge of energy from the sun. The Lives of a Cell 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z In fact, as the probability of a strike grew larger and larger, he left Boston without telling anyone where he was going. 1919 The Year That Changed America 2019-01-08T00:00:00Z An interesting elaboration on the concept of conditional probability is known as Bayes’ theorem, first proved by Thomas Bayes in the eighteenth century. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Johnson wasn’t sure he wanted to take the time to analyze this boy’s blood serum, if, in all probability, nothing would be found in it. The Hot Zone 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z What is the probability his assailant was indeed black? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “The probability that he could rent this place out would increase significantly if the apartment were vacant.” The Vanderbeekers of 141st Street 2017-10-03T00:00:00Z The probability of obtaining exactly one 4 among the three dice is likewise determined by breaking the event into the three mutually exclusive ways it can happen. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z In all probability, an entire forager band was massacred at Ofnet. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z She waited for an answer; when none arrived, she seemed to weigh the probabilities and decide in favor of proceeding. In Cold Blood 1966-01-01T00:00:00Z The first is the law of large numbers, one of the most significant though often misunderstood theorems in probability theory, and one which people sometimes invoke to justify all sorts of bizarre conclusions. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z So ran my logic; and having seized upon these probabilities, logic gave way to steep fear. The Astonishing Life of Octavian Nothing, Traitor to the Nation, Volume II: The Kingdom on the Waves 2009-10-13T00:00:00Z On the basis of the binomial probability distribution and the 1/12,000,000 figure, this probability can be determined to be about 8 percent—small, but certainly allowing for reasonable doubt. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z I stopped: I could not trust myself to entertain, much less to express, the thought that rushed upon me—that embodied itself,—that, in a second, stood out a strong, solid probability. Jane Eyre 1847-10-16T00:00:00Z As hostility between the United States and the Soviet Union increased, it began to feel like a probability. Hidden Figures 2016-09-06T00:00:00Z To illustrate the important binomial probability model, and to provide a numerical example of a statistical test, imagine the following miniature test for ESP. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “It is difficult to judge the probabilities of a child as young as that, but it seems to me not quite a normal baby...” The Gene 2016-06-02T00:00:00Z What is the probability of two students from the same school winning? Shooting Kabul 2010-06-22T00:00:00Z Fredericksburg had been undertaken with little probability of success, the papers claimed; nothing could have been expected under the shabby plans—if, indeed, they were plans—other than appalling slaughter. Across Five Aprils 1964-01-01T00:00:00Z We wish to make God subordinate to our human understanding with its vain and feeble probabilities; yet it is he who has made both us and all we know. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z When it’s Siraj’s turn, he does a very dry, kind of mumbled recitation of probability formulas. Shine! 2019-11-05T00:00:00Z Assume the probability to be one out of 10,000 that a particular dream matches in a few vivid details some sequence of events in real life. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Even if we change the probability to one in a million for such a predictive dream, we’ll still get huge numbers of them by chance alone in a country the size of the United States. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The surprising answer is that, with probability better than 99 percent, you did just inhale such a molecule. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The probability of all the gas molecules in our first box being found in one half of the box at a later time is many millions of millions to one, but it can happen. A Brief History of Time: And Other Essays 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The expected value of a quantity is simply the average of its values weighted according to their probabilities. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z It’s natural to think that if the number of men is very large, this probability should be quite small. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z They discussed the probability on their walks home. The Great Santini 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Another counter-intuitive problem involving seemingly disproportionate probabilities concerns a New York City man who has a woman friend in the Bronx and one in Brooklyn. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z You would have been hard-pressed to find anyone in Wall who would have argued with him, though; she turned many heads and, in all probability, broke many hearts. Stardust 1998-10-01T00:00:00Z Let’s examine a preliminary and relevant probability oddity, whose discovery is due to statistician Bradley Efron. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z In any case, given that a family has at least one daughter, what is the conditional probability that it also has a son? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Thus, the probability of having two girls and a boy is %, and so approximately 300 of the 800 couples will have such a family. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Usually something like, “Susie and Sally are going to a brunch with 8 other people. What’s the probability they will sit next to each other?” The Miscalculations of Lightning Girl 2018-05-01T00:00:00Z If a family has five children, what is the probability that they will have exactly three girls? at least, three? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Your chances of a 4 coming up only twice are a little harder to calculate unless you use the binomial probability distribution mentioned in Chapter 1, which I’ll derive again in this context. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z In roulette, what’s occurred previously has no effect on the probability of future spins of the wheel. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Between songs Mr. Switzer competed with the DJ for attention, calling out noise level readings and the probability of sustaining permanent hearing loss from the evening’s festivities. Anthem of a Reluctant Prophet 2007-04-30T00:00:00Z Eradication there would be a formidable undertaking, considering the vast areas involved and the probability of re-invasion from Mexico. Silent Spring 1962-09-27T00:00:00Z Our unifying topics, number and probability, do, however, pro vide the basis for statistics, which, together with logic, constitutes the foundation of the scientific method, which will eventually sort matters out if anything can. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Early in her career at Langley, Dorothy Lee was interviewed for the Daily Press, in all probability by Virginia Biggins, the female reporter assigned to the Langley beat. Hidden Figures 2016-09-06T00:00:00Z If you choose the second route, the probability is A that none of your soldiers will die, and 2A that all 600 will die. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Unless the events A and B are independent, the probability of A is different from the probability of A given that B has occurred. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The probability that the particle, say, passes through some particular point is found by adding up the waves associated with every possible history that passes through that point. A Brief History of Time: And Other Essays 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “Death by piano doesn’t seem like a high probability.” They Both Die at the End 2017-09-05T00:00:00Z This said that the universe didn’t just have a single history: rather it had every possible history, each with its own probability. A Brief History of Time: And Other Essays 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Lee’s mind leaped ahead at the possibilities—no, they were probabilities, and his finger tapping slowed still further. Cannery Row 1945-01-01T00:00:00Z The probability of rolling a pair of dice and getting a 12 is V36. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Equally, Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle implies that particles behave in some respects like waves: they do not have a definite position but are “smeared out” with a certain probability distribution. A Brief History of Time: And Other Essays 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z One man may put it down to sun spots while another invoking the law of probabilities doesn’t believe it. Cannery Row 1945-01-01T00:00:00Z Moral certainty, grounded in probability, had, in the writings of Wilkins and Locke, joined deductive or self-evident knowledge as a form of truth. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z You must plan experiments on the basis of probability, even bare possibility, rather than certainty. The Lives of a Cell 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z There surely is something to these terms, but too often they’re the result of minds intent on discovering meaning where there is only probability. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Daniel Bernoulli published on astronomy as well as probability. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z The conditional probability that someone speaks English, given that he or she is an American citizen, on the other hand, is probably about 19Ao or .95. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Each payout is multiplied by the probability of its occurring, and these products are then summed up to give the average or expected payout. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z That night I fell asleep with all these people discussing the probability of my being found and hauled back to the city. My Side of the Mountain 1959-01-01T00:00:00Z By the time Victoria was seventeen, and Tristran also, she was in all probability, he was certain, the most beautiful girl in the British Isles. Stardust 1998-10-01T00:00:00Z The prosecutor argued that the probability was so low that such a couple existed that the police investigation must have turned up the actual culprits. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Before an item is recorded in a computer’s memory, the memory is in a disordered state, with equal probabilities for the two possible states. A Brief History of Time: And Other Essays 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z I returned the favor by giving an impromptu lesson in psychology, probability, and manual dexterity. The Name of the Wind 2007-03-27T00:00:00Z The surprising likelihood of coincidence is illustrated by the following well-known result in probability. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Geneticists use these Punnett squares to determine inheritance, recessive and dominant genes, probabilities and chance. Wonder 2012-02-14T00:00:00Z This study is more impressive, even if less spectacular, than the earlier a priori probability argument. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z He reasons that the probability of two bombs being on board would be infinitesmal. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z We can see here in miniature how the idea of the fact was inseparable from questions of evidence and probability. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z The conditional probability that someone is an American citizen, given that he or she speaks English, is, let’s assume, about Vs. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The cloud itself is essentially just a zone of statistical probability marking the area beyond which the electron only very seldom strays. A Short History of Nearly Everything 2003-05-06T00:00:00Z They all talked at once, their voices insistent and contradictory and impatient, making of unreality a possibility, then a probability, then an incontrovertible fact, as people will when their desires become words. The Sound and the Fury 1929-01-01T00:00:00Z “Yes. My daemon’s tongue can taste probability, you know.” The Golden Compass 1995-07-01T00:00:00Z And if you don’t have some feeling for probabilities, automobile accidents might seem a relatively minor problem of local travel, whereas being killed by terrorists might seem to be a major risk when going overseas. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Succinctly: The law of large numbers gives a theoretical basis for the natural idea that a theoretical probability is some kind of guide to the real world, to what actually happens. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z To find out why, let’s look at the conditional probability of your having cancer, given that you’ve tested positive. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z It states simply that in the long run the difference between the probability of some event and the relative frequency with which it occurs approaches zero. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z That is, how many people would there have to be in a group in order for the probability to be half that at least two people in it have the same birthday? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Must he now face the probability that Luath, too, was dead? The Incredible Journey 1961-01-01T00:00:00Z I think it wrong that I write to you with hope and optimism for our future; I think I must prepare you for the possibility—no, the probability—of heartbreak. Across Five Aprils 1964-01-01T00:00:00Z When Pascal combined probability theory with zero and with infinity, he found God. Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea 2000-02-07T00:00:00Z The case was appealed to the California supreme court, where it was overturned on the basis of another probability argument. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z If a player attempts twenty shots per night, for example, the probability is surprisingly almost 50 percent that he will hit at least four straight baskets sometime during the game. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z The probability that he’d hit safely in at least forty-four straight games is about four times higher still. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z It is not difficult to show this using a tool from probability theory called an expectation, which is a measure of how much we expect each envelope to be worth. Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea 2000-02-07T00:00:00Z Without any knowledge of the probability of there being various amounts of money in the envelopes, there is no way out of this impasse. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Before I get to a serious application, I’d like to mention another con game which works because of confusion about conditional probability. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “Anything is possible, but probability will work for us here if only we let it,” said Henry. The Secret History 1992-10-16T00:00:00Z The probability of red on the next spin is 18/38, the same as the conditional probability of red on the next spin given that there have been five consecutive reds. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Facts must come first, and inescapable conclusions, at least about probabilities, must be based upon them. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z The theoretically more interesting field of inferential statistics uses probability theory to make predictions, to estimate important characteristics of a population, and to test the validity of hypotheses. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z ‘Sixty per cent probability he’s lost, forty that he’s run away?’ The London Eye Mystery 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z You can only list its probability of being there. A Short History of Nearly Everything 2003-05-06T00:00:00Z The uniformity of the earth’s life, more astonishing than its diversity, is accountable by the high probability that we derived, originally, from some single cell, fertilized in a bolt of lightning as the earth cooled. The Lives of a Cell 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z When one is dealt a bridge hand of thirteen cards, the probability of being dealt that particular hand is less than one in 600 billion. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Another problem in probability illustrates how common coincidences may be in another context. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Though some have taken this tiny probability as an argument for “creation science,” the only thing it clearly indicates is that monkeys seldom write great plays. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z A similar calculation using 23 rather than 5 yields V2, or 50 percent, as the probability that at least two of twenty-three people will have a common birthday. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z He determined the probability of this, found it to be low but not low enough for him, so now he always travels with a bomb in his suitcase. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Many people will of course say that the probability is 80 percent, but the correct answer, given certain reasonable assumptions, is considerably lower. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z In this they are quite unlike testimonies, which degrade as they pass from ear to ear in an endless game of Chinese whispers; eighteenth-century probability theorists actually devised formulae for calculating this rate of degradation. The Invention of Science 2015-09-17T00:00:00Z If one-tenth of all people have a certain blood type, what is the probability that, of the next hundred people we randomly select, exactly eight will have the blood type in question? at most, eight? Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z However, the conditional probability that the card is a face card given that it’s a king is 1, or 100 percent. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z His impossible dream had, against all probability, crossed deserts and mountains to come to Zosma and extend an unprecedented invitation. Strange the Dreamer 2017-03-28T00:00:00Z Oracular ambiguity or statistical probability provides loopholes, and discrepancies are expunged by Faith. The Left Hand of Darkness 1969-03-01T00:00:00Z Two Theoretical Results A large part of the attraction of probability theory is the immediacy and intuitive appeal of its practical problems and of the simple principles which enable us to solve many of them. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “The probability of you succeeding with your plan was pretty much zero,” said Habib. Shooting Kabul 2010-06-22T00:00:00Z In mathematics Pascal helped invent a whole new branch of the field: probability theory. Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea 2000-02-07T00:00:00Z In all probability, he was aware that the call was bogus, but nonetheless he seemed deeply aroused; his mouth fell open. Nine Stories 1953-04-06T00:00:00Z Conditional probability also explains why blackjack is the only casino game of chance in which it makes sense to keep track of past occurrences. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z This probability is not even close to being sufficiently low to warrant rejecting our assumption of no ESP. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “No, I don’t want to hear the statistics or probability or whatever. That’s just how I felt.” The Line Tender 2019-04-16T00:00:00Z In all probability the man and woman with the flashlight had alerted the police. The Diary of a Young Girl 1997-02-03T00:00:00Z The probability of going from A to B is found by adding up the waves for all the paths. A Brief History of Time: And Other Essays 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z She’s gesturing with her hands, talking about researchers at MIT and probability bending to prevent paradoxes. The Sun Is Also a Star 2016-11-01T00:00:00Z The left column tallies the probability, based on all past meetings between the two wrestlers fighting that day, that the 7—7 wrestler will win. Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything 2005-04-12T00:00:00Z Natural uranium’s fission cross section—that is, the probability that the nucleus would fission under given circumstances—was highly sensitive to the energy of the impinging neutrons. Big Science 2015-07-07T00:00:00Z If the spinner is spun one hundred times and the letters recorded, the probability that the word cat or warm will appear is very small, but the probability of some word’s appearing is high. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z “As we move closer to the motel,” warned Nala, “there’s a high probability that one or more of us will be washed away in the flood.” Dog Squad 2021-05-11T00:00:00Z The conditional probability of getting a 12 when you know you have gotten at least an 11 is Vs. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Statistically, the probability of any one of us being here is so small that you’d think the mere fact of existing would keep us all in a contented dazzlement of surprise. The Lives of a Cell 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z Godwin’s Law—an Internet commonplace—states, “As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.” Words Like Loaded Pistols 2011-10-20T00:00:00Z We must also face the probability, however, that Lee just wasn’t as interesting as Grant. Television Review: How an Engineer Became a White-Haired General 2011-01-02T22:11:34Z The probability of this is low as the area was secure and well-supervised. Ask Amy: Aunt’s nose is out of joint over new baby 2016-12-22T05:00:00Z We wanted to determine what factors were correlated with a coordinator's probability of becoming a head coach. New evidence of discrimination against Black coaches in the NFL since 2018 2022-02-27T05:00:00Z The company's eventual prosperity depends on being able to sell personal details to advertisers, and so the site's default privacy settings are set to maximise the probability that those details will be available. Are the best pictures on Facebook or Flickr? 2010-10-02T23:06:00Z “Increased stress demonstrably decreases both the probability of someone starting to change their behavior as well as the success in any behavior change.” Falling short on your 2021 resolutions? Remember: Pandemic. 2021-01-14T05:00:00Z They concluded that there was a greater than 90% probability that all the NSAIDs they studied were associated with a heightened risk of heart attack. Common painkillers may raise risk of heart attack by 100% – study 2017-05-09T04:00:00Z It's a funny, slightly dated, in all probability quite a sexist word, and I'm not entirely sure I understand it, but I think she may be what is known as an ingenue. Felicitations 2011-02-20T00:04:06Z A wildly entertaining book about probability, which left me ultimately deflated by my complete ignorance of chance, or luck, and what an astonishing huge part that plays in our lives. John Cleese Intends to Have His Unread Books Buried With Him 2020-09-03T04:00:00Z What matters is the probability that it will appreciate. Perspective | Beeple’s digital ‘artwork’ sold for more than any painting by Titian or Raphael. But as art, it’s a great big zero. 2021-03-15T04:00:00Z Contrived group dancing meant the probability of a handsome guy asking me to dance was nada, but the bigger problem was my feet. Glimpses: Cuernavaca, Mexico, June 2005 2011-02-02T23:00:00Z The probability of a recount affecting the outcome of a particular presidential election in which there is a single pool of national popular votes is low. ‘Veep’ and ‘Game of Thrones’ Echo Our Politics, as Farce and Tragedy 2016-04-21T04:00:00Z His experiments found humans prefer gambling on low but specific probabilities — say, a one-in-a-million shot — to gambling on the unknown. How a writer defied ‘one in a million’ odds to get her first movie made by Steven Spielberg 2017-12-20T05:00:00Z Responsibility for the shutdown is like an electron in a probability cloud, with no fixed location, impossible to pin down. Analysis | ‘The buck stops with everybody’: How Trump twists cliches to do his bidding 2019-01-11T05:00:00Z Max Born in 1927 found the answer: the waves are not physical waves but probability waves. Our godless brains: Emerging science reveals mind-blowing alternatives to a higher power 2014-04-26T20:00:00Z “The probability of any American being a victim of violent crime on average is lower than it’s been” in nearly 20 years, Butts said. ‘Your dad’s in jail’ 2012-06-26T16:33:00Z These advantages, in turn, significantly increase the probability of the food being consumed instead of ending in a landfill or incinerator. Eating local hurts the planet 2012-06-16T19:00:00Z Some of the models showed the probability, even on the last days, at well over 80 percent. Perspective | Trump won, and Northam crushed Gillespie. Why believe polls ever again? 2017-11-11T05:00:00Z Venturi’s Faith holds herself more tightly, a jittery presence still trying to juggle odds, plans and probabilities even when logic has clearly failed. ‘Montag’ Review: A Dark Hymn to Female Friendship 2022-10-25T04:00:00Z I do think each generation will go on throwing up new theories and probabilities, but I don't think they will solve it, and that's great. George Mallory and Everest: did he get to the top? Film revisits 1920s climb 2010-08-27T15:47:00Z Still, the film nicely captures the grad-student vibe: beer-fueled bull sessions about science, religion, probability and destiny; fragile, self-absorbed egos preening even as confidence wavers. | 'Watching TV With the Red Chinese': Gillian Jacobs in ?Watching TV With the Red Chinese? ? Review 2012-01-20T01:46:56Z Assuming I actually survived the operation, there was still a high probability it could wreck my endocrine system — depriving me forever of the energy that made it possible to do my life’s work. Tony Robbins gets real about success in life and health: 'Just thinking positive is B.S.' 2022-02-16T05:00:00Z Most of quantum mechanics deals with probabilities rather than certainties. What Does Quantum Physics Actually Tell Us About the World? 2018-05-08T04:00:00Z Mr. Guerrero said that the authorities will try to negotiate some kind of compromise, but there was a probability of more violence ahead. Is It Safe to Travel to Mexico? Here’s What You Need to Know. 2023-02-01T05:00:00Z Gambling is where the iron laws of probability collide with the human propensity for magical thinking. Review: ‘Mississippi Grind’ Keeps Its Cards Close 2015-09-24T04:00:00Z Calm, polite and reasonable, her Philip was a mathematician and academic who would have explained their meeting and his unexpected demise with the laws of probability. 'I Married You for Happiness': the mystery of a lasting marriage 2011-09-14T21:52:04Z Elliott, in his urbane way, says only that in 2016 Turkey was on a path to accession and that Vote Leave was citing what was a probability. 'They've turned Michael Gove into a vacillating fool' – politicians on Brexit: The Uncivil War 2019-01-07T05:00:00Z She said it is unnecessary and “in all probability illegal” for companies to ask to see a GRC before agreeing to change a customer’s name and title. Transgender woman's request to become 'Ms' refused by NatWest 2015-05-17T04:00:00Z I was once a victim of an armed robbery, and I knew the probability of experiencing another was high. The Nas generation of scholars: Finally, a Grammy for the hip hop artist who led me to liberation 2021-03-20T04:00:00Z "Predictive algorithms are not magic boxes that divine future crime, but instead probability models of future events based on current environmental vulnerabilities," he notes. How Facebook could get you arrested 2013-03-09T19:20:01Z But while I'm glad to see the Royal Court confronting the supposedly taboo subject of class, the play occasionally overstates its case and raises issues of dramatic probability. Posh 2010-04-16T00:58:00Z But the probability of it happening to you in Britain, say, where 60 million people live, is that of course it's going to happen. Clive Stafford Smith: 'The jury system in this country is utter insanity' 2012-07-08T19:00:02Z José Saramago, Portugal's Nobel prize winner, magically suspended the laws of reality and probability in order to write about undiscovered islands, buoyant ships of stone and elephants trudging over the Alps. The Land at the End of the World by Ant?nio Lobo Antunes ? review 2011-07-21T10:45:01Z But his calculations of probability are less clever, especially for a guy who fondly remembers Journal of Recreational Mathematics as boyhood reading. Books of The Times: ‘Never Go Back,’ a Jack Reacher Novel by Lee Child 2013-08-29T20:56:21Z And it's not because of little things like reality, probability and so on. Noises off: Pros and cons in the job of theatre 2010-08-26T10:35:00Z I believed for a long time that she was using me to get closer to him, and in all probability she was—at least initially. Did my best friend really know me? 2015-07-19T04:00:00Z “In aggregate, what we show is there’s quite a low probability of transmission to any particular passenger,” Weiss said. Coronavirus outbreak: Window seat safest place to avoid potential transmission on flight: study 2020-01-29T05:00:00Z The Climate Prediction Center just increased the probability of El Nino to 70 percent for this summer and fall, Fagre said. USGS: Glacier’s glaciers melting slowly, for now 2014-06-06T04:00:00Z Mr. Child, though, is a numbers guy: All of the books, with their emphases on timing, probability, precise logistics and spatial calculations, reveal that. Review: It’s 1996, and Jack Reacher Is Playing Nice With Others 2016-11-03T04:00:00Z Ms. Renner has worked with Mr. Parker, Ms. Lang and other neighbors to develop a baseline understanding of F.A.A. evaluation processes, rocket failure probability rates, casualty areas, overflight exclusion zones and debris dispersion areas. Last Stop on the Way to the Cosmos? No Thanks. 2021-08-21T04:00:00Z And what are the probabilities that anyone fighting back against unsanctioned police violence could be thought of as anything beyond a thug or a murderer by the greater public? The Powerful Perspective of “Queen & Slim” 2019-11-27T05:00:00Z The standard of proof in a civil case rests on the balance of probability, whereas in a criminal case it relies on the matter being beyond reasonable doubt. Depp libel trial reveals problems of proof in domestic violence cases 2020-07-28T04:00:00Z Often, there is a little fragment of hope, if only for a few more weeks of life, as medicine is almost always about probabilities rather than certainties. An Oncologist Asks When It’s Time to Say ‘Enough’ 2019-10-15T04:00:00Z And while scientists agree this doesn't present any risk of cancer or other harms to eaters, the probability that the meat industry will label them "tumor burgers" seems inevitable. Could we all be buying lab-grown meat soon? 2023-03-10T05:00:00Z At least failure will be clear: You decided you wanted something and were going to attempt it, there was a certain probability of success and a certain probability of failure and success was not yours. We were breast-fed really late 2012-05-21T00:00:00Z He goes off on interesting tangents, granting the reader some light relief from detailed analysis of sampling and probabilities. A crash course in understanding numbers 2017-02-02T05:00:00Z I've heard truly draconian cuts are in the offing, so I'm hoping that this will reduce the probability that that will occur. The smart science of "Contagion" 2011-09-03T17:01:00Z When he eventually managed to locate his potential grandmother, the test showed only 13.5% probability that she was related to him. Who do you think you are? Now you can find out with a do-it-yourself DNA test 2015-08-15T04:00:00Z "But there are a number of steps that we can take – layered approaches that can reduce the probability of that happening," he added. School shootings: Can clear backpacks keep kids safe? Expert weighs in. 2021-10-18T04:00:00Z Or as Minobe explains with a typical tentativeness, “I think that as a memory, there’s a high probability that it will be one of those that flash before your eyes before death, I think.” | 'Five Days in March': Finding Refuge From Protests, From Toshiki Okada 2010-05-11T22:31:00Z It just means that probability is one thing — and inevitability is quite another. Perspective | Nate Silver will make one firm prediction about the midterms. Most journalists won’t want to hear it. 2018-10-15T04:00:00Z "But the probability of the dice doing damage to a boat is just about zero." ArtsBeat: An Artist's Game of Chance on the High Seas 2013-01-08T17:24:53Z But Chestnykh never expected the sudden success of the site and he plans to improve its accuracy by including more books and adding a probability percentage for each result. Do you write like Kurt Vonnegut or Judy Blume? Website analyzes text 2010-07-16T23:10:00Z Regardless of that, or the swirl and blending of two massive content oceans, there's no getting away from the probability that the amount of inclusive content and diversely staffed productions will decrease. Will your favorite TV shows and movies survive Warner Bros. Discovery's culling? 2022-08-07T04:00:00Z Optimism has various dimensions, and just because some people take a dim view of human nature and some future probabilities, that does not mean they are hardcore pessimists who believe things can only get worse. In praise of cynicism 2013-07-10T17:27:31Z Pregnancy may not be a probability, but STDs are. Perspective | Ask Amy: Silver dater meets Mr. Corvette 2018-07-02T04:00:00Z Like an orbital shaped by statistical probability, she seems to appear and disappear, coalescing as an electron might only where you expect to see one. Where are the women Kerouacs? 2013-03-13T22:28:00Z I believe that anything is better than Putin because that eliminates the probability of a nuclear war. Garry Kasparov Says We Are Living in Chaos, But Remains an Incorrigible Optimist 2018-12-04T05:00:00Z A hurricane’s path may seem erratic at times, but modern forecasting has turned the chaos of weather into data, patterns, probabilities. ‘This isn’t just a stupid story, it’s a big story’: An oral history of Sharpiegate 2019-09-13T04:00:00Z So yeah, I hope it’s an extremely low probability of getting anything like that. ‘We may have a wild roller-coaster ride’ after the election, says Ohio State law professor Edward Foley 2020-10-23T04:00:00Z So her testosterone levels are, in all probability, just a notch above mine. Magic Mike turned me gay! 2012-07-06T13:00:00Z The result is an especially dangerous situation in which they are not only unjustifiably sure about their views, but their views have a higher probability of being wrong. Beyond “new atheism”: Where do people alienated by the movement’s obnoxious tendencies go from here? 2017-08-07T04:00:00Z Tarantino and Aaron Sorkin each had a hand in its screenplay, which is packed with what The Chicago Tribune critic Michael Wilmington called “cheerful big-movie disregard for logistics, probability and fictitious human life.” Movie Listings for Aug. 14-20 2015-08-13T04:00:00Z At one point a maths professor confesses that he once wrote a sci-fi novel "about someone who builds a sort of magic probability machine". The Coincidence Engine by Sam Leith ? review 2011-04-02T23:17:32Z Western medical thinking, on the other hand, focuses on causes and effects, conditions and probabilities. Exhibition Review: ‘Bodies in Balance,’ the Rubin’s Exhibition on Tibetan Healing 2014-03-14T22:07:34Z An unstable atom has a probability of decaying at a certain instant. What Does Quantum Physics Actually Tell Us About the World? 2018-05-08T04:00:00Z We are releasing so much content now," he says, "that there is a probability otherwise that it will run away with itself. Shane Smith: 'I want to build the next CNN with Vice – it's within my grasp' 2013-03-23T22:24:20Z It didn’t entirely prevent him from being noticed but, rather, greatly reduced the probability of it. How Garry Winogrand Transformed Street Photography 2018-09-15T04:00:00Z So Much for That continues Shriver's interest in chance, though the incidence of medical catastrophe among the cast list might initially be thought to be pushing the laws of probability. So Much for That by Lionel Shriver | Book review 2010-03-27T00:07:00Z Given how many nominees and remakes there are from each year, the rules of probability suggest we would expect about 10 remakes to have won. Four Best Picture Contenders Are Remakes. Does That Matter to Oscar Voters? 2022-03-25T04:00:00Z "The key to understanding it is when you're testing for paternity, what you're getting is not a fact, but a probability. And that's the best that we seem able to do now," Younger said. The Minnesota court overseeing Prince's estate is setting up a process to screen any claims from people that they are the megastar's child 2016-05-18T04:00:00Z But new research underway is taking on the fingerprint match probability problem. Fingerprints aren’t proof 2012-09-23T12:30:00Z Prior accuracy: In 2013, the site offered a strong probability that "Argo" would win best picture — along with many pundits — and saw its prediction come true Oscar night. Oscars 2015: Big Data number crunchers try their hand at calling the awards 2015-02-21T05:00:00Z “The current planned approach for ‘Pass Over’ is that confirmation of vaccination status is an important element in ensuring that the probability of there being an infectious person indoors will be much, much lower.” Perspective | How Broadway is working to ensure covid doesn’t bring the curtain down again 2021-07-29T04:00:00Z One problem with relying on predictions based on probabilities of behavior, Mr. Mayer-Schönberger and Mr. Cukier argue, is that it can negate “the very idea of the presumption of innocence.” Books of The Times: ‘Big Data,’ by Viktor Mayer-Schönberger and Kenneth Cukier 2013-06-10T21:43:52Z There is a high probability that the answer will include words such as “strange,” “unusual,” and “weird.” From global warming to fluoride: Why do people deny science? 2013-05-25T20:30:00Z But it sounds as if, from your point of view, your physical connection has always been lacklustre, and that may indicate a low probability of improvement. My partner says our relationship is the sexiest he's had. For me, it's the least. Can it be saved? 2019-08-13T04:00:00Z I didn’t believe him, but, excited by the possibility of retiring my indoor bike trainer and the probability of laughing at it all winter long, I bought a fat bike the following week. Think you can’t ride a bike in the snow? Fat biking is here to prove you wrong. 2021-11-11T05:00:00Z The resulting thematic tapestry of rebirth and the restorative power of art satisfies against all narrative probability. 'Melissa Arctic' an updated twist on 'A Winter's Tale' 2014-10-02T04:00:00Z The circumstances drive Waxworth to work out his complicated relationship to analytics: Can you live a good life by basing all your decisions on measurable probabilities? A Numbers-Cruncher Confronts Emotion and Other Unquantifiable Matters 2020-05-05T04:00:00Z And interest rates are based on the understanding of risk, the probability that something will happen: in this case how likely the borrower is to default on the loan. William Leith: my problem with money 2020-06-14T04:00:00Z Although he could have shortened some analyses, they are clear, and he gives the most comprehensible explanation of probabilities I can remember reading. Bridge: Pointers for a Favorite Player, in Books or 365 Days a Year 2009-12-17T06:10:00Z There are different packs always available in the app that contain different numbers of cards with varying probabilities on rare cards. Star Wars Expands to Addictive Digital Trading Cards with Topps 2015-03-31T04:00:00Z A bunch of able students do the working-out with probability trees and wordy explanations, but the comics often come to the same conclusions, and viewers at home can pause and play along, too. TV highlights – 01/05/2013 2013-05-01T05:59:01Z Just how much Dre is owed will be the subject of a jury trial, in all probability. Dr. Dre wins judgment over "Chronic" reissue 2011-04-21T00:37:10Z There was never a high probability that Miss Manners was going to approve your yelling at pedestrians after you nearly ran them down. Perspective | Miss Manners: Handling bike lane infractions 2020-08-05T04:00:00Z “Fear doesn’t need to be based in logic or probability,” says Nicole Bush, a child clinical psychologist and the director of developmental medicine at the University of California at San Francisco’s pediatrics and psychiatry departments. My daughter’s sleep issues have resurfaced with the pandemic, and I’m losing my mellow mojo 2020-05-25T04:00:00Z The probability of a violent act is palpably higher for males compared with females across the life span. Science doesn’t know everything 2013-06-02T18:00:00Z For nonspoiler purposes, let’s call that solution “the shiny object” — a project of dubious ethics, and little probability of succeeding, that nevertheless proves irresistible to all who contemplate it. ‘My Zoe’ Review: Julie Delpy’s Provocative Family Drama 2021-02-24T05:00:00Z A budding intellectual, Lexie ponders how romance aligns with the theory of probability: Her graph of the relevant variables, in a notebook, displays her mother’s dating failures in brutal plunging lines. Review | ‘Sooner/Later’ weaves rom-com premise into bittersweet family portrait 2019-05-22T04:00:00Z A microbiologist, who examined the viruses of both Benaissa and her ex-boyfriend, told the court Wednesday that "in all probability" the singer was responsible for infecting the 34-year-old man with the virus that causes AIDS. German prosecutors: No jail for HIV girl-band singer 2010-08-25T18:31:00Z The whole process increases the probability of agencies working together to achieve our desired goal of better protecting the elderly… This model is on the cutting edge. Can elder abuse be stopped? 2013-03-28T20:30:00Z These services’ ancestral algorithms are based on estimates and probabilities, not certainties, but they nevertheless claim to distill the self into a series of appealingly specific data points onto which personal narratives can be written. The Racial Spectacle of DNA Test Result Videos 2018-05-06T04:00:00Z The equation of math with counterpoint is not necessarily axiomatic, but the probability is high that J.S. Math + music=a little dry, but pleasant 2015-06-01T04:00:00Z There is essentially a zero probability for the number of points of congruence between the two versions of Somebody to Love Bieber released the song in 2010 with Usher also singing on the recording. Bieber sued for copyright over track 2013-05-07T06:44:08Z Ms. Heigl doesn’t have Mr. Spader’s mystique or inimitable knowing air, so the lapses in logic and probability are all the more obvious. Katherine Heigl Stars in NBC’s ‘State of Affairs’ 2014-11-16T05:00:00Z Instead, by his side is a guy with a Ph.D. in theoretical physics, a beautiful mind who can calculate complex probabilities, in real time, in his head. Why Sports Statisticians Should Be More Involved in Games 2011-03-11T09:35:00Z Each was asked to rate the probability of various outcomes, and their answers were averaged to get a result. Watchful Waiting - For the Supreme Court 2012-06-20T22:48:12Z In terms of presidential elections, this probability indicates that there would be a recount in a nationwide popular vote for President only once in every 740 years. ‘Veep’ and ‘Game of Thrones’ Echo Our Politics, as Farce and Tragedy 2016-04-21T04:00:00Z He has a lovely study of the way in which male chimpanzees, when they meet up with each other, have a very high probability of fighting. Sharing is in our nature 2012-08-13T11:45:00Z If proved on the balance of probabilities, risk of this is an acceptable basis for a UK court to sever a parent’s legal bond with their child. 'I saw his fluffy little head going out the door': one woman's fight to keep her baby 2016-02-20T05:00:00Z And the concept of probability is often expressed in the form of odds. William Leith: my problem with money 2020-06-14T04:00:00Z It struck him then if he increased his odds - or provided multiple artists’ work under one roof - the probability of selling art would increase. Rock concert posters star at new Reno store 2014-05-15T04:00:00Z So the forecast is objective, but the way people look at probabilities is very contingent on what their assumptions are. Nate Silver: ‘There were some models that gave Trump as little as a 1 or 2 percent chance’ of winning in 2016 2020-02-24T05:00:00Z “While I don’t dispute that there are peculiarities in it,” he said, “I’m inclined to say that on the balance of probabilities we should assume that it is in Beethoven’s hand.” As Prices for Classical Scores Soar, One Beethoven Is in Question 2016-12-18T05:00:00Z The issue is not the statistical probability of getting the virus. You Live Outside New York. Are You Ready to Return to Broadway? 2020-06-07T04:00:00Z “The more connected that individual is to an issue they care about, the higher probability there is they will stay involved over a longer period of time,” Mr. Hughes said. A Facebook Founder Begins a Social Network Focused on Charities 2010-11-30T06:10:00Z The pages in which Riesman examines Broonzy's early years, for instance, are peppered with phrases such as "more likely," "most likely," "the probability" and other estimations that do not carry the weight of fact. Bringing Big Bill Broonzy back into the spotlight 2011-05-23T13:37:28Z How you react to “Ashley Bell” may well depend on your tolerance for events that crowd the outer limits of probability. Dean Koontz’s ‘Ashley Bell’: A colorful tale that veers toward the otherworldly 2015-12-10T05:00:00Z That revelation depends on a very dicey bit of chronology, one of several probabilities that may irritate attentive readers. Alice Hoffman’s compelling tale of the artist Camille Pissarro and his mother 2015-08-04T04:00:00Z Optimism is about a constellation of probabilities; hope entails active effort. Democracy Is for Losers (and Why That’s a Good Thing) 2021-07-06T04:00:00Z Whereas the probability is high that there is a vast reality that we have no way to perceive, that’s actually bearing down on us now and influencing everything. George Saunders Has Written the Best Book You’ll Read This Year 2013-01-06T19:57:18Z Turn him into a modern teenage girl, and the probability rises further. Review | What would happen if Hamlet was a girl in the Internet age? 2017-07-26T04:00:00Z The probability was that I'd be disappointed by the book as I'm generally biased against things that are universally worshipped. Tips, links and suggestions: our review list and what you are reading 2012-06-12T14:41:13Z In the early '90s, my father was obsessed with the Florida Lottery, charting the winning numbers each week, trying to determine the probability of every possible combination. The year of no Halloween 2020-10-31T04:00:00Z That the Musco worked as well as it did Saturday and sounded as compelling as it did only enhances the probability of this theater's potential for greatness. Musco Center's sound decision pays dividends in hall's debut 2016-03-21T04:00:00Z "One of the things you learn as president is you're always dealing with probabilities," he told me. The death of Osama bin Laden: how the US finally got its man 2012-10-12T22:00:09Z Experts disagree on the probabilities, but the soft-spoken Mr. Buzzelli is persuasive, and the videos of his late-night homecoming on Sept. Critic’s Notebook: New Sept. 11 Documentaries on Cable 2012-09-06T22:22:29Z He also floats the probability that at least one of the killers was an FBI informant. Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention by Manning Marable ? review 2011-04-10T05:00:01Z “There is such a low probability that the mosquito is carrying the virus,” he said. Headed to Miami? Here’s What You Need to Know About Zika 2016-08-19T04:00:00Z If folks who are not in a relationship are worried about the probability of finding a soulmate there’s a mathematical equation for that too. True love calculus: It’s more complex than you plus me equals us 2014-03-13T19:53:00Z When you reverse the process — turn words into probabilities — you have an interpretive tool of astonishing power. The Algorithm That Could Take Us Inside Shakespeare’s Mind 2021-11-24T05:00:00Z The more a given herbal preparation appears between texts, the higher the probability it’s the correct remedy, Touwaide said. What the ancient Greeks can teach us about herbs 2017-01-09T05:00:00Z The second design, defined by Aviointeriors’ “Glassafe” system, looks more like traditional airplane seating, but with large transparent partitions between each headrest “to reduce the probability of contamination by viruses.” Design firm proposes new airline seating arrangements in response to coronavirus pandemic 2020-04-21T04:00:00Z That was never clearer than during last year’s campaign, when various news organizations were depicting the probability of Hillary Clinton winning. Perspective | Trump won, and Northam crushed Gillespie. Why believe polls ever again? 2017-11-11T05:00:00Z One man's journey from Mexico to the U.S. — with its promise of economic prosperity and its probability of risk and betrayal — shapes the narrative, tries to tie the loose ends together. Harsh realities of immigration issue drive overly earnest 'Frontera' 2014-09-04T04:00:00Z There’s a decent probability of eventually becoming a bit bionic, map pins in your thumb joint, collarbone, ankle, showing the places you have been. Broken collarbone? Just roll with it 2013-06-02T17:00:00Z The desire to rejoin the real world was all-consuming, and in all probability it cost those three men their lives. Escape from Alcatraz: a swim from the Rock to the San Francisco shore 2017-01-04T05:00:00Z By way of comparison, if we were to randomly pick one nominee from each year, basic probability tells us that our random selections would match the winner in only 23 percent of the years. Who Will Win Best Song at the Oscars? Popularity Helps 2017-02-21T05:00:00Z “It’s all a probability matter,” Haynes said, “and you can bias that probability toward avoiding bringing them home by doing those inspections initially.” How to avoid bringing bedbugs home from vacation 2017-08-24T04:00:00Z I would assign a high probability to that. ArtsBeat: An Interview With James Cameron 2010-10-19T13:40:00Z "There is essentially a zero probability for the number of points of congruence between the two versions of 'Somebody to Love,'" Copeland and Overton said in the lawsuit. Justin Bieber, Usher targeted in copyright infringement lawsuit 2013-05-06T21:57:57Z He reads Sophocles, weighs probabilities, considers the potential effect of the weather on the criminal mind. Book review: ‘The Siege,’ by Arturo Pérez-Reverte 2015-01-22T05:00:00Z The burden of proof was on the Sun to demonstrate that the story was substantially accurate on the balance of probabilities. Johnny Depp loses libel case against Sun over claims he beat ex-wife Amber Heard 2020-11-02T05:00:00Z A different approach gave the computers data and got them using probability to infer, say, what film to recommend. Machines for thinking 2015-10-01T04:00:00Z Still, Lem admitted to a weakness for detective stories and wrote one himself, “The Chain of Chance,” a novel as much about probability and chaos theory as it is a whodunit. The Beautiful Mind-Bending of Stanislaw Lem 2019-01-06T05:00:00Z Our model reveals that having played quarterback in college increases a coordinator's probability of becoming a head coach by nearly 10%. New evidence of discrimination against Black coaches in the NFL since 2018 2022-02-27T05:00:00Z A particle has a probability of appearing in a certain place. What Does Quantum Physics Actually Tell Us About the World? 2018-05-08T04:00:00Z Occasionally, such bottles can be found for less — one of my favorites here is just $12.99 — but the probability is low. 20 Wines Under $20: Plenty of Variety and Not One Chardonnay 2018-05-17T04:00:00Z The statement referred to the Sept. 1 tweet from the Birmingham National Weather Service as “inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.” ‘This isn’t just a stupid story, it’s a big story’: An oral history of Sharpiegate 2019-09-13T04:00:00Z A civil case requires a lower standard of proof than in a criminal case, with a judge sitting without a jury making a decision on the balance of probabilities. The woman who sued over rape: 'I needed to speak up' 2018-10-06T04:00:00Z Each additional year of NFL playing experience increases a non-Black coordinator's probability of becoming a head coach more than a Black coordinator's probability. New evidence of discrimination against Black coaches in the NFL since 2018 2022-02-27T05:00:00Z “The fact of something going wrong is low probability, but the consequences of something going wrong are tremendous,” Kenner said. A movie revisits the night a nuclear warhead nearly destroyed Arkansas 2016-09-23T04:00:00Z Each shift and patient increases the probability that another health care worker will become infected. On the Front Lines of a Pandemic, ‘I Love You’ Can Mean ‘Goodbye’ 2020-03-27T04:00:00Z Then there was Musil the philosophical scientist, interested in probability theory and logical positivism, as well as in the workings of the mind and the soul. ‘The Man Without Qualities’ Acquires a New Volume 2019-12-05T05:00:00Z So that's a long way of not answering your question in terms of the probability. "Countdown to Zero": Valerie Plame Wilson's new anti-nuke crusade 2010-07-23T01:02:00Z First, we found a statistically significant difference in how NFL playing experience impacts the probability of becoming a head coach for Black and non-Black coordinators. New evidence of discrimination against Black coaches in the NFL since 2018 2022-02-27T05:00:00Z All these factors, Robinson continues, “combine in complex ways – and I’m sure we don’t understand them all – to increase the probability of problematic use in a variety of things”. Constant cravings: is addiction on the rise? 2019-01-09T05:00:00Z Though there is "probability," there is not "provability." "The Lost Leonardo" is a slick, fascinating mystery that uncovers ego and hubris in the art world 2021-08-13T04:00:00Z “My report, which said there was a high probability that Ansel Adams took the photos, has got to change.” A Turnaround in Ansel Adams Photo Dispute 2010-08-30T22:08:00Z For a few short months a year, Seattle-area music fans are able to enjoy their favorite bands under the sun/stars without a high probability of getting doused. Washington’s best outdoor summer concerts and festivals 2019 2019-05-14T04:00:00Z A profound consequence is that the probability wave applies to all locations in the universe. Our godless brains: Emerging science reveals mind-blowing alternatives to a higher power 2014-04-26T20:00:00Z The divide is, in all probability, because of the stigma women encounter when sharing their abortion stories with those who oppose the procedure. Study: Women are less likely to tell pro-life friends about their abortions 2014-11-04T05:00:00Z It's all about risk and probabilities and all the information suggests that as humans we just aren't that good at understanding them or relating them to our own lives. My own genome project 2013-06-08T18:45:00Z The story is about big topics such as probability, mortality and loneliness, but it’s also a lot of fun. Best children’s and young adult books of 2016 2016-11-17T05:00:00Z Looking back, one always has to weigh the possibilities and probabilities of any given year. Academy often misses Hollywood's greatest films, actors 2013-02-22T22:09:23Z Moreover, the waves are actually mathematical wave functions of the probability of where a particle is located. Our godless brains: Emerging science reveals mind-blowing alternatives to a higher power 2014-04-26T20:00:00Z I think the "open question" ignores the probability that the father did both. The Season of the Skulls 2016-09-20T04:00:00Z The New York Times website estimated the victory probabilities in each race and, as the evening progressed, moved steadily in the Democrats’ direction. For media following Georgia, nail-biting and lots of numbers 2021-01-05T05:00:00Z Specifically, the size of a probability wave at any given point of location is proportional to the probability that the electron is located at that location. Our godless brains: Emerging science reveals mind-blowing alternatives to a higher power 2014-04-26T20:00:00Z "If you talk to the average citizen, they're very concerned about terrorism, but in reality the probability of the threat is so minuscule it shouldn't be on the radar," says McIndoe. America's Safest Cities 2010-10-11T23:10:00Z Although these are harder to evaluate, physicists at the Crocker Nuclear Laboratory have concluded through ink analysis that “with high probability, Bach was also responsible for the underlinings and marginal marks.” Bach Was Far More Religious Than You Might Think 2018-03-30T04:00:00Z A 2009 National Academies of Science report on the failings and shortcomings of forsensic science recommended more research focused on probabilities – figuring out the statistical likelihood that a fingerprint could be pronounced a match erroneously. Fingerprints aren’t proof 2012-09-23T12:30:00Z “I was surprised that women were thinking so much more about the probability of success as supposed to men,” said Fulton. Why are men so foolish? 2013-02-17T18:00:00Z For anyone headed to the Caribbean before then, the probability of finding a seaweed-covered beach is greater in some places than others. Update: Caribbean Beaches Dig Out From Massive Seaweed Invasion 2011-10-11T18:24:04Z An enchanted kitchen implement allows Paama to bring the slightest probabilities to pass. Fresh voices in science fiction: Karen Lord, Eleanor Arnason and Amelia Beamer 2010-07-25T04:46:00Z In his writing, he is interested in probability, paradox, word play. The Novel That Riveted France During Lockdown Arrives in the U.S. 2021-11-23T05:00:00Z The clock, which symbolically represents Earth’s proximity to disaster, now indicates that the “probability of global catastrophe is very high.” Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock 2 minutes closer to midnight 2015-01-22T05:00:00Z It is tempting, when judging first-class genre fiction, to apply the standards of style and probability that we ask of literary fiction. With ‘Orphan X,’ Gregg Hurwitz launches a Bourne-like series 2016-01-06T05:00:00Z They express probabilities rather than certainties, and generalities rather than specifics. Mind reading is possible! 2012-12-15T23:00:00Z “To talk about epidemiology and probability theories is difficult to understand as opposed to ‘If you put this substance in your body, it’s going to be bad.’ We’re a nation of medical conspiracy nuts 2014-03-19T14:08:00Z Beane and Brand are marvelously and vividly human, even though their approach to the game involves the almost literal dehumanization of the players, who are converted from flesh and blood into ciphers of pure probability. ?Moneyball,? ?Ides of March? Contain Inside Information 2011-10-09T03:17:20Z This isn’t a theory, it’s a fact: according to the UN, women’s participation increases the probability of peace deals lasting 15 years by 35%. 'Think about the bigger picture': life lessons from Meryl Streep and other successful women 2017-01-21T05:00:00Z Not only do they wear less, they let words out of their mouths without wrapping them up in much probability either. Michael Holden's All ears 2010-06-11T23:05:00Z After reading a stack of books and articles on the subject almost as tall as I am, I’d put the probability at 98 percent, maybe even 99. ArtsBeat Blog: Errol Morris Interviews Stephen King 2011-11-10T14:39:00Z When you get into the weeds, you start discovering some fascinating probabilities and strategic options. An independent California isn’t that wacky of an Idea 2017-02-12T05:00:00Z The knowing chuckle this speech earns is probably not worth the sacrifice of subtlety — or probability. Review: ‘Indecent’ Revisits a Play Colliding With Broadway Mores and More 2016-05-17T04:00:00Z Cohere predicts the most likely language to follow from any given set of texts: It turns probabilities into words. The Algorithm That Could Take Us Inside Shakespeare’s Mind 2021-11-24T05:00:00Z For instance, one new artist nominee, the R&B singer H.E.R., is also nominated for album of the year, which would indicate a higher probability of being a Grammy voter favorite, Zauzmer noted. More Grammy nominees makes winning a greater challenge 2019-02-04T05:00:00Z When complex human stories are carved into the style of a thriller, the probability of reductionism increases. Review | In ‘Amnesty,’ an immigrant is put in an impossible position 2020-02-18T05:00:00Z Science is, by its nature, about evidence-based probabilities not absolute certainties. The dark truth about chocolate 2018-03-25T04:00:00Z In other words, the lighter the female, the higher the probability of marriage. Dark-skinned black girls don't get married 2019-04-08T04:00:00Z The authors advise that you beware experts who use words like confidence, likelihood and probability interchangeably, and never underestimate the value of asking the deceptively simple question: What is going on here? Three New Books Explore the Machinery of the Mind 2020-04-03T04:00:00Z Asking your former employee to get vaccinated against Covid-19 is one way to increase the probability of his staying healthy enough to repay you. He Wants a Loan. Can I Demand That He Get Vaccinated First? 2021-12-09T05:00:00Z Though Oscar pundits debate the weight of smaller award wins in predicting Oscar glory—and even whether we should treat those awards as prognosticators—in all probability, those early belt notches can’t exactly hurt. This Movie Just Got One Step Closer to Winning Best Picture 2015-12-01T05:00:00Z The formula takes into account the number of conspirators, how much time has passed, and the probability of a whistle-blower. 17 facts about conspiracy theories 2021-07-24T04:00:00Z "The probability of the company's next release losing money remains high." DreamWorks' shares fall as investors worry about financial issues 2015-01-24T05:00:00Z He writes clearly, untangling cause from effect, noting probabilities and inserting caveats. ‘Do Fathers Matter?’ Shows Why They Do 2014-06-01T04:00:00Z From this meeting onwards, he is part of a plot that cheats probability. American Gods by Neil Gaiman 2011-08-19T21:55:08Z Because if the probability of something happening is one in a million, you think: 'Well, it's never going to happen to me.' Clive Stafford Smith: 'The jury system in this country is utter insanity' 2012-07-08T19:00:02Z The middle chapters of “The Gardener and the Carpenter” are stuffed with absorbing bite-size summaries of similar research, demonstrating children’s intuitive grasp of concepts like probability, reliability and ontology. Memo to Parents: Back Off, and Children Learn More 2016-08-24T04:00:00Z “The combination of an older woman and an older man means that their probability of success is reduced. Therefore they are more reliant on assisted conception.” The male infertility crisis: ‘My failure at fatherhood ate away at my very being’ 2018-08-12T04:00:00Z And, in all probability, keep on collecting the Oscars. Englishmen at 50 2010-09-25T23:07:00Z "There is essentially a zero probability for the number of points of congruence between the two versions of Somebody to Love," Copeland and Overton said in the lawsuit. Bieber sued for copyright over track 2013-05-07T06:44:08Z A gallery assistant asked about the probability of it exploding. Divine Excess on Avenue C 2022-07-20T04:00:00Z Here I find myself utterly out of step with most critical opinion, and in all probability with the awards season consensus. Lincoln sets stage for celebration of US history 2013-01-09T10:53:59Z “Media understanding about probability, margin of error and uncertainty is very poor,” Silver said Monday afternoon when I stopped by the Manhattan office of his FiveThirtyEight.com for a pre-election chat. Perspective | Nate Silver will make one firm prediction about the midterms. Most journalists won’t want to hear it. 2018-10-15T04:00:00Z Poker is a game of numbers, probability, patience and, despite the American government’s contrary belief, immense skill. A chip and a chair 2014-05-08T04:00:00Z I also indulge in impatient snaps at her, relying on the high probability that she won’t remember them. Refreshing a Mother’s Memory With Love and Stories 2017-01-06T05:00:00Z Zander: Beethoven is in all probability the greatest composer who ever lived. Q&A: Can’t stop, won’t stop: Famous conductor’s show goes on 2019-03-03T05:00:00Z A few drinks later Mr. Wednesday persuades Shadow to become his paid bodyguard, a job assured to come with a lot of perks as well as a high probability of a violent death. Divine drama: “American Gods” answers our prayers for a show worthy of worship 2017-04-28T04:00:00Z It estimates 90% probability the climatic phenomenon, involving an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean, will develop through 2023 and be of moderate strength. What this year’s El Niño means for wheat and global food supply 2023-07-17T04:00:00Z The fact that cookouts often come with a high probability of beer is also great. Meet me inside — I hate eating al fresco 2022-07-03T04:00:00Z Not his New Yorker readers, surely, who, in all probability, were encountering the glove-and-ball test for the first time. Aaron Sorkin's verbal tics and self-plagiarism's technical impossibility 2012-07-09T13:00:00Z We still don’t have elaborate algorithms or teams of people calculating the probability a short brunette management consultant will swipe right on a skinny, tall bike messenger. What I learned as Date Lab’s longest-serving matchmaker 2017-08-01T04:00:00Z DNA testing submitted to the court Thursday shows La Bove has a zero percent probability of being her father. Kinison friend says comic fathered child 2011-02-17T23:20:25Z My money would be on the probability that he was going to look at her again, like he did last week when he watched her and Arun sleeping. "In Treatment" recap: Frances reads her test results 2010-11-23T13:30:00Z For Americans, the probability of dying during the next year doubles every eight years. Why I lie about my age: Surely it’s OK to be sexual at any age, without being labeled a “puma” or a “cougar” 2015-12-26T05:00:00Z In the current political environment, my visit to such a place elevates the probability of emboldened strangers aggressively parroting Tucker Carlson's talking points in my face. It's the most wonderful time of year ... to not make your loved ones of color visit a sundown town 2021-11-25T05:00:00Z The message to the audience: Abandon all laws of physics and probability, and surrender to the gorgeously alien planet of Cirque. Cirque du Soleil's Zarkana: The Summer's Great Stage Show 2011-07-03T05:50:00Z The district attorney's report employed an outside coroner's expert who concluded "that even with the more advanced -1982 - state-of-the-art procedures would not, in any reasonable probability, change the ultimate conclusions" reached 20 years earlier. Questions linger 50 years after Monroe's death 2012-08-01T15:07:11Z In civil cases, it is a matter of proving it on the balance of probabilities. Harvey Weinstein faces UK civil claim over alleged sexual assault 2017-11-27T05:00:00Z Stated in another way, the wave function tells us the probability of finding a particle at any given point of space. Our godless brains: Emerging science reveals mind-blowing alternatives to a higher power 2014-04-26T20:00:00Z Even subconsciously, we spend a lot of time weighing the probability of various rewards and losses. Why your brain is having difficulty making plans right now, according to a neuroscientist 2020-10-30T04:00:00Z Higher incomes result in a higher probability of voting GOP. It’s the wealth gap, stupid: Inequality drives “economic anxiety” — both real and perceived 2017-05-14T04:00:00Z “They are hatched in dark recesses, amid whispers and code words and verbal signals. The footprints of guilt must often be traced with the searchlight of probability.” How an impeachment unfolds: Inside the 1974 Nixon hearings, day by day 2019-10-14T04:00:00Z They may think nuclear war a high probability or that climate change disasters are inevitable. The one percent plans to ride out the end of the world in style 2017-08-21T04:00:00Z After you scroll through, the law of probabilities dictates you’ll end up with someone you actually admire. Pay-to-hey: app lets users receive messages from celebrities – for a price 2019-04-29T04:00:00Z The greater the uncertainty of the outcome, the more we tend to exhibit an all-or-none mentality: we think in absolutes instead of relative probabilities. Angelina Jolie, meet Nate Silver 2013-05-15T16:59:00Z In the areas of the Gulf of Maine, the Caribbean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, they write, there are high probabilities of exceptional warming events and "ecological surprises." Climate change effects hit marine ecosystems in multiple waves, according to marine ecologists 2023-11-16T05:00:00Z The town's flood protection scheme, which opened in 2016, was designed to cope with levels up to 3.8m above normal - described as a one in 200 probability. Sailing to school and the daily issues of climate change 2023-11-16T05:00:00Z The institution issued a red alert for the center-west, southeast and parts of the north warning of “a high probability of major damage and accidents, with risks to physical integrity or even human life.” It’s not yet summer in Brazil, but a dangerous heat wave is sweeping the country 2023-11-15T05:00:00Z In comparing different timings, waiting two or more minutes to clamp the cord had a 91 percent probability of being the best treatment to prevent death shortly after birth. Delaying cord clamping could halve risk of death in premature babies 2023-11-14T05:00:00Z The probability of an eruption remained high despite a decrease in seismic activity, the Icelandic Meteorological Institute said in a statement on Tuesday. Iceland prepares to shield geothermal plant from risk of volcanic eruption 2023-11-14T05:00:00Z Until now, the usual strategy has been to statistically examine previous flood events in the region: There is a high probability of minor flooding, a lower probability of major flooding. How mega-floods can be predicted 2023-11-10T05:00:00Z Now council engineers are trying to establish the true peak so they can recalculate the probability of the defences being breached again. Sailing to school and the daily issues of climate change 2023-11-16T05:00:00Z “The probability of bears in your camp, even if you are a messy camper, is almost zero,” he said. How reintroduction of grizzlies would affect North Cascades recreation 2023-11-11T05:00:00Z Prosecutors with the office’s Conviction Integrity Unit found the allegations and new evidence from Solorio create “a reasonable probability that the outcome of Mr. Solorio’s trial would have been different,” according to an Oct. He was jailed 23 years ago for murder. The evidence pointed to his brother. A judge has now set him free 2023-11-09T05:00:00Z Markets also imply about an 80% probability the European Central Bank will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England is seen easing in August. Hopes of early rate cuts underpin gains in world shares 2023-11-06T05:00:00Z From this, one can try to extrapolate the probability of even greater floods. How mega-floods can be predicted 2023-11-10T05:00:00Z Markets also imply around an 80% probability the European Central Bank will be cutting rates by April, while the Bank of England is seen easing in August. Asia shares rise as markets look for early rate cuts 2023-11-06T05:00:00Z “On balance I think AI will be a force for good most likely, but the probability of it going bad is not zero percent, so we just need to mitigate the downside potential.” Elon Musk begins testing on a snarky AI bot named Grok 2023-11-04T04:00:00Z Last month, Peru's climate study office raised the probability that the intensity of this El Nino will be strong from December, up from a previous forecast that saw only moderate intensity. South America's Lake Titicaca nears record low water level as El Nino bites 2023-11-03T04:00:00Z In research recently published, Jain and his colleagues found that frequency pictograms, which convey proportions and probabilities, induce optimism in consumers when they are presented in a sorted way. Power of the pictogram: Researcher finds that sorted graphics make consumers feel optimistic 2023-10-31T04:00:00Z “Whenever we have a U.S. company in the bidding process, the probability of winning is 70 to 80%,” he said. Treasury Secretary Yellen calls for more US-Latin America trade, in part to lessen Chinese influence 2023-11-02T04:00:00Z Meanwhile, the probability of a rate cut by June next year advanced to almost 70% and futures now imply around 85 basis points of easing for all of 2024. Morning Bid: Markets cheer as Powell finds his balance 2023-11-02T04:00:00Z After that, he said, “there’s a high probability that I will leave.” Beijing’s crackdown fails to dim Hong Kong’s luster, as talent scheme lures mainland Chinese 2023-11-01T04:00:00Z Studies can’t prophesy what will happen to any one person, he says, but “this is about probabilities and relative risks.” Bariatric Surgery at 16 2023-10-31T04:00:00Z "Living conditions may also have a role in terms of social isolation, which is experienced by some older adults and has previously been linked with a higher probability of death from extreme heat." Heat-related cardiovascular deaths in the U.S. may more than double within decades 2023-10-30T04:00:00Z The investment manager calculated "a high probability" Mexico will get half of the bond's $125-million payment earmarked towards Pacific hurricanes. After hurricane, Mexican president urges insurers to hurry payouts 2023-10-27T04:00:00Z Even more significantly, this framework allows operators to know the probability of accurate flaw detection just as reliably as traditional evaluation methods that demand more time and labor. Inspection method increases confidence in laser powder bed fusion 3D printing 2023-10-26T04:00:00Z While a jury in a criminal trial must be sure beyond reasonable doubt of guilt, at an inquest a coroner can make conclusions based on the lower standard of using a balance of probabilities. Yousef Makki: Boy's stab death unlawful, new inquest concludes 2023-10-25T04:00:00Z For a cooling cup of coffee, it means that the spread of probabilities of locating a molecule in the liquid is reduced. Do we live in a computer simulation like in The Matrix? My proposed new law of physics suggests so 2023-10-25T04:00:00Z The outcome, which took about six months, was that "on the balance of probabilities, the assault did not take place" and the man was given no suspension or penalties. Edinburgh University failing over sexual misconduct complaints - students 2023-10-23T04:00:00Z "Once you start making 10, 20 mutations, the probability of having unanticipated results may increase." You say genome editing, I say natural mutation 2023-10-19T04:00:00Z “It’s technically designed to take the best shot that gives it the highest probability of kill,” he said. AP visual analysis: Rocket from Gaza appeared to go astray, likely caused deadly hospital explosion 2023-10-20T04:00:00Z "And perhaps there’s lower probability that the Fed will have to raise interest rates further." Wall Street notches weekly loss as benchmark US bond yield eases 2023-10-20T04:00:00Z When meteorologists produce these forecasts, they are giving an educated probability that temperatures and precipitation will be above or below average. Winter Could Be Warmer in the North and Wetter Across the South 2023-10-19T04:00:00Z “If there are habitable environments on Europa,” Phillips said, “that could have profound implications for the probability of life in the cosmos.” How NASA's Europa Clipper will survive its trip to Jupiter's hostile moon 2023-10-18T04:00:00Z Futures markets reflected about a 40% probability of a U.S. rate hike in December, compared with about a 28% chance seen before Thursday's consumer prices report. Global stocks weighed down by inflation jitters 2023-10-13T04:00:00Z Futures contracts that settle to the Fed policy rate reflect about a 40% probability of a rate hike in December, compared with about a 28% chance seen before the CPI report. Stocks in Asia slump on rate jitters 2023-10-13T04:00:00Z Futures contracts that settle to the Fed policy rate reflect about a 40% probability of a rate hike in December, compared with about a 28% chance seen before the inflation report. Asian shares drop sharply as US price data revives rate hike jitters 2023-10-13T04:00:00Z Futures contracts that settle to the Fed policy rate fell after the report, reflecting about a 35% probability of a rate hike in December, compared with about a 28% chance seen before the report. Fed seen less likely to stick to rate pause after inflation data 2023-10-12T04:00:00Z Another seemingly peculiar feat of quantum objects is that with some probability they can pass through barriers. Quantum Physics Isn’t as Weird as You Think. It’s Weirder 2023-10-12T04:00:00Z The stock reaction implies investors are assigning a 72% probability to the deal being completed, based on Pioneer's share price at the end of trading on Oct. Exxon secures lead in top US oilfield with $60 billion buy of shale rival Pioneer 2023-10-11T04:00:00Z When adjusting the estimated $5 trillion in losses over a five-year period for the probability of those extreme weather events occurring, the expected global economic losses were $711 billion, Lloyd's said. Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trillion -Lloyd's 2023-10-11T04:00:00Z The average scores in reading, science and math all were below benchmarks the ACT says students must reach to have a high probability of success in first-year college courses. ACT test scores for US students drop to new 30-year low 2023-10-10T04:00:00Z Virologist Sander Herfst of Erasmus University Medical Center worries there is a “high probability” that if mutant viruses arise because of gene edits in chickens, they will be better adapted to mammals as well. In ‘proof of concept,’ CRISPR-engineered chickens shrug off flu 2023-10-10T04:00:00Z It just so happens that the invisible hand of natural selection never fashioned any horses with horns, and hence the probability of riding one through an enchanted forest someday is approximately zero. We're all gonna die! How the idea of human extinction has reshaped our world 2023-10-08T04:00:00Z "The shekel will most likely weaken sharply tomorrow and we see a high probability that at some point the Bank of Israel will sell FX." Israel markets sink, businesses shut after Hamas attack 2023-10-08T04:00:00Z Labour says a civil case would be decided on the lower "balance of probabilities" test, not on the ICO's higher bar of "beyond reasonable doubt". Ex-Jeremy Corbyn staff court case denting Labour election funds 2023-10-05T04:00:00Z The authors also found a significant relationship between 35 domesticated tree species—including Brazil nut, Pará rubber tree, murumuru, and cacao—and the probability of earthworks. Laser mapping reveals hidden structures in Amazon—with hints at thousands more 2023-10-04T04:00:00Z And it happens not in space but in time such that a probability trough appears for two photons arriving at the same time. Entangled Light from Multitasking Atoms Could Spark Quantum Breakthroughs 2023-10-04T04:00:00Z The IRB members did a terrific job analyzing, in their words, the “near zero probability” of its current plans and budget succeeding. Mars Sample-Return Missions Could Reduce Tensions with China on Earth 2023-10-03T04:00:00Z The probability of subsequent reactions in the chain depends on the energy of the fission neutrons. Chi-Nu experiment ends with data to support nuclear security, energy reactors 2023-09-28T04:00:00Z A bigger population means a higher probability that at least a few will survive out in the harsher environment and successfully find a new body. Your microbes live on after you die. A microbiologist explains how 2023-10-02T04:00:00Z Fortunately, these pipelines have a low probability of failure. Pipelines Touted as Carbon Capture Solution Spark Uncertainty and Opposition 2023-10-01T04:00:00Z In an unusually dry and warm winter, their survival probabilities are reduced; in a wet and cold spring, hatching success is impaired. Important additional driver of insect decline identified: Weather explains the decline and rise of insect biomass over 34 years 2023-09-27T04:00:00Z "So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower." Blackouts less likely this winter says National Grid 2023-09-27T04:00:00Z The emitted neutron and gamma ray energy and angular spectra are measured along with the probability for the reaction to occur, typically referred to as the neutron scattering cross section. Chi-Nu experiment ends with data to support nuclear security, energy reactors 2023-09-28T04:00:00Z Checking the result of a superposition of choices never reveals a superposition of outcomes — rather, you only ever obtain one of the possible outcomes, each of which has a different probability. To Move Fast, Quantum Maze Solvers Must Forget the Past 2023-09-27T04:00:00Z "Intervention risk is still elevated, with our... model putting the probability at around 20%," Adam Cole, RBC Capital Markets' chief currency strategist, said in a note to clients. Dollar hits 10-month high as US yields spike, yen slides 2023-09-26T04:00:00Z Bayesian modeling uses probability to represent uncertainty within a model. New study definitively confirms Gulf Stream weakening, understanding the changes could help predict future trends in extreme events 2023-09-25T04:00:00Z Their win probability bottomed out at 0.5% when they were down 9-1 after 4 1/2 innings, according to Baseball Savant. 102-loss Royals have turned out to be quite the spoilers against playoff-chasing Astros 2023-09-25T04:00:00Z We imagine that each pore is open with probability p and closed with probability 1 – p independently. Bizarre Quantum Theory Explains Why Your Coffee Takes So Long to Drip through a Narrow Filter 2023-09-25T04:00:00Z “She put us up together with the probabilities and gave us the best chance to go up against them. Both teams played their hearts out, and I hope that we keep the process for 2024.” Positive US looking ahead to next battle in 2024 after failing to reclaim Solheim Cup from Europe 2023-09-24T04:00:00Z An amber alert means there is a greater probability that an eruption will take place in the coming days or weeks. Chile raises alert for Villarrica volcano to amber 2023-09-24T04:00:00Z Returning her conclusion, Ms Whittle said that, on the balance of probabilities, Mrs Hewitt could have survived. Sheffield woman's blood clot death was preventable, inquest finds 2023-09-22T04:00:00Z "We think the probability of the single currency falling to its year-to-date lows is high alongside the recession risk on the continent," said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe. Dollar eases after U.S. data; yen slumps as BOJ keeps policy ultra-loose 2023-09-22T04:00:00Z For example, how does the probability that the fluid can flow from top to bottom across a rectangle depend on the ratio of its height to its width? Bizarre Quantum Theory Explains Why Your Coffee Takes So Long to Drip through a Narrow Filter 2023-09-25T04:00:00Z Its path through space gives it the highest probability of impacting Earth of any known asteroid. Osiris-Rex: Asteroid Bennu 'is a journey back to our origins' 2023-09-21T04:00:00Z The probability of a baseball actually striking a bird in flight must be astronomical, but sadly it has happened at least three times — including twice in one week this season. Goose evades fowl ball at Dodger Stadium. Will a flying object doom team like in 2022? 2023-09-21T04:00:00Z The word probable is key there, as there must be a greater than 50% probability that a crime happened. Definitions Of Probable Cause Vs. Reasonable Suspicion 2018-06-26T04:00:00Z The H2S PHM calculates the probability a component will continue working without a failure, based on how many fills the station has completed. Predictive model could improve hydrogen station availability 2023-09-19T04:00:00Z Most employ a melange of satellite images, census data, historic fire information or climate projection that can roughly determine a home’s probability to burn — not only today, but over the next 30 years. How wildfire risk scoring puts WA homeowners in insurance jeopardy 2023-09-19T04:00:00Z These don’t beat each other with identical probabilities, but they’re still intransitive. How Warren Buffett Rigged a Dice Game with Bill Gates 2023-09-19T04:00:00Z In the American League, the Orioles’ recent surge gives them an 80% probability of winning the East. MLB playoff projections: Dodgers should be No. 2 seed in NL. Who else is in? 2023-09-18T04:00:00Z If she is to avoid a four-year ban from tennis, she has to prove "on the balance of probability" that her use of Roxadustat from another source was not intentional. Why has Halep been given four-year doping ban? 2023-09-15T04:00:00Z SpaceX must obtain a modified FAA license to launch, which entails a sometimes-lengthy review of the Starship's flight trajectory, accident probabilities and other factors affecting nearby public safety. US could advance SpaceX license as soon as October after rocket exploded in April 2023-09-13T04:00:00Z Yusov later told national television: "Those are significant damages. We can now say that with a high probability they are not subject to restoration." Ukraine says serious damage to Russian naval targets in Crimea attack 2023-09-13T04:00:00Z What is the probability that two copies of die A roll a sum that beats two copies of die B? How Warren Buffett Rigged a Dice Game with Bill Gates 2023-09-19T04:00:00Z Mr Withey said if the risk of the procedure had been explained to Ms Kerr before she had financially committed to it, she would not "in all probability" have gone through with it. BBL surgery: Coroner issuing warning after Turkey death 2023-09-13T04:00:00Z Also supporting oil prices on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said it now sees the probability of a U.S. recession starting in the next 12 months at 15%, down from an earlier forecast of 20%. Oil prices hit 10-month high as Saudi, Russia extend supply cuts 2023-09-05T04:00:00Z Money market traders are less convinced - current pricing indicates no more than a 50-50 probability of another hike this year, suggesting the RBA's 400-basis point hiking cycle started in May last year is over. Morning Bid: Aussie rate decision, Asian markets on a roll 2023-09-04T04:00:00Z The Padres had a win probability of 95.6% according to Baseball Savant, but they’ve been losing these types of games all year and this was no exception. Slumping since All-Star break, Marlins, D’backs, Giants and Reds keeping each other in playoff race 2023-09-04T04:00:00Z Futures now imply a 93% chance of rates staying unchanged this month and a 67% probability that the entire tightening cycle is over. Shares rise, dollar loses some safe-have lustre as China mood brightens 2023-09-04T04:00:00Z The market seemed to agree as futures now imply a 93% chance of rates staying steady this month and a 67% probability that the entire tightening cycle is over. Asia looks to extend rally on China, US rate hopes 2023-09-04T04:00:00Z The authors found that logistics are a major driver of research activity in the Amazon, since areas with the highest research probabilities are located near facilities such as universities and institutes. Brazil's struggling rainforests are so understudied, it's not clear how bad the damage is 2023-09-03T04:00:00Z "The latest inflation figures raise the probability of a new increase in interest rates in September," Diego Iscaro at S&P Global Market Intelligence said. Stubborn euro zone inflation fails to settle ECB rate debate 2023-08-31T04:00:00Z As a result, markets moved to price in a 99.5% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia would pause its rate hikes for a third straight month in September, given inflation is easing as desired. Australian inflation slows more than forecast, fuelling bets hikes are over 2023-08-30T04:00:00Z The slowing inflation reaffirmed market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia would pause its rate hikes for a third straight month in September, with a 99.5% probability, given policy is clearly restrictive . Australian inflation slows more than forecast, reinforcing pause case 2023-08-30T04:00:00Z “Because no birds have ever been vaccinated against highly pathogenic avian influenza in the U.S., we didn’t think it was a high probability.” Endangered California Condors Get Bird Flu Vaccine 2023-08-29T04:00:00Z However, according to study findings, this is another challenging commitment: although indigenous lands constitute 23% of the Brazilian Amazon, these areas have lower research probability. Brazil's struggling rainforests are so understudied, it's not clear how bad the damage is 2023-09-03T04:00:00Z Futures imply around an 80% chance of no change at the Sept. 20 meeting, but a 58% probability of a hike by year end. World shares rally as China offers markets a hand 2023-08-28T04:00:00Z In all probability, Trump's upcoming criminal trials will only make him more popular and powerful among his core followers, not less. "We call that kind of love a cult": Experts on the latest disturbing poll of Trump supporters 2023-08-28T04:00:00Z Futures imply around an 80% chance of a steady outcome at the Sept. 20 meeting, but a 58% probability of a hike by year end. Asia shares rally as China measures boost market 2023-08-28T04:00:00Z Futures imply around an 80% chance of a steady outcome at the Sept. 20 meeting, and a 54% probability of a hike by year end. Asia shares edge higher, data-packed week ahead 2023-08-28T04:00:00Z Rate futures priced in a slightly better than 50/50 probability of another rate hike later this year, up from earlier, and priced in a slightly lower chance of rate cuts next year. Fed's Powell says higher rates may be needed, will move 'carefully' 2023-08-25T04:00:00Z "The back end would come down relative to the front end because there'd be a higher probability of a recession in 2024," Edwards said. Analysis: US Treasury yield curve shifts could be set-up for Jackson Hole unwind 2023-08-24T04:00:00Z But a study has found the probability of an individual serving on some of these panels does not correlate with measures of their scientific prowess. RSV vaccine, scientific advisory panels, and a biodiversity hot spot at risk 2023-08-23T04:00:00Z If the judge finds that the case doesn’t have a probability of succeeding, they can dismiss the lawsuit and order the person that filed it to pay the opposing party’s attorney’s fees. Wisconsin Democrats want to ban sham lawsuits as Republican senator wages war on local news site 2023-08-23T04:00:00Z Defendants believed this would lead to a higher probability that members of a grand jury and jury would first indict and then convict Mr. Trump and do so in rapid fashion, e.g., U.S. v. Garland, Smith, Willis and Bragg: The indictment a grand jury should return 2023-08-22T04:00:00Z “How do we treat an AI based on its probability of consciousness? Personally this is part of what compels me.” If AI becomes conscious, how will we know? 2023-08-22T04:00:00Z A change in the weather, including high humidity and the probability of light rain, has buoyed the outlook. Many Gray fire evacuations reduced as I-90 reopens 2023-08-22T04:00:00Z During that period, officials would “determine whether there is substantial probability that in the foreseeable future, the defendant will attain capacity to permit the trial to proceed.” Is Tom Girardi's dementia an act? Court to hear evidence 2023-08-22T04:00:00Z So the notion that it would just be us is, in my opinion, unrealistic from a probability standpoint. From star to stars: Astrophysicist Aomawa Shields traces her journey from acting to astronomy 2023-08-20T04:00:00Z That line equates to a probability of 60 percent, or slightly better than 50-50. Mailbag: George Kliavkoff’s final grade, options for ‘Pac-4’ schools and more 2023-08-18T04:00:00Z There is also a high probability of flash flooding on Sunday and Monday: “Rare and dangerous flooding will be possible,” a spokesperson for the center said. How to prepare for Hurricane Hilary, the first tropical storm to hit L.A. in 94 years 2023-08-18T04:00:00Z While the probability of wider crackdowns is low, he said making decisions remains challenging. China's crackdowns rewrite investors' private sector playbook 2023-08-17T04:00:00Z But analysts say the longer this drags on, the probability of an intervention fades as the junta cements its grip on power, likely forcing the international community to accept the status quo. Nigeriens prepare for war against regional countries threatening to invade, 3 weeks into the coup 2023-08-16T04:00:00Z "Recession or no recession, we think the probability of higher-for-longer interest rates is far greater than the likelihood of near-term cuts," credit investment firm Oaktree Capital said in a recent note. Analysis: Higher-for-longer rates regime pressures US recession trades 2023-08-16T04:00:00Z She said this could be done on the balance of probabilities. Diane Douglas' partner killed and buried her in Colton garden - inquest 2023-08-15T04:00:00Z "The recent economic trend has in our view increased the probability of a September hike following a hike in August, and we expect Norges Bank to signal this," DNB Markets said on Aug. 11. Norway seen lifting policy rate to 4.0% this week 2023-08-15T04:00:00Z This may force banks to fill the funding gap, the note said, although they flagged a low probability of the same. JPM warns of higher risk for Chinese REITs after Country Garden's troubles 2023-08-14T04:00:00Z "We view the probability of this deal getting done without meaningful concessions as low," Gibbs added. U.S. Steel shares jump after unsolicited bid from Cleveland-Cliffs 2023-08-14T04:00:00Z A hazard mitigation plan prepared for Maui County in 2020 said that the area of West Maui — where Lahaina is located — had the highest annual probability for wildfires of all the communities in the county. West Maui Had Been Warned It Was at High Risk for Wildfires. 2023-08-12T04:00:00Z The official added that there was a "low probability" for legal recourse, as the suspect was not an Israeli citizen. Israel deports Jewish Iranian suspected of spying attempt with tissue box 2023-08-11T04:00:00Z "There is a high probability that this election will be decided by the first-time voters," said Brighton Tamberekera, a projects officer at vote watchdog Zimbabwe Election Support Network. Zimbabwe presidential hopefuls use music, stars to woo crucial youth vote 2023-08-11T04:00:00Z While markets are priced for a roughly 60% chance of a pause in September, they are split for year-end, with just over a 50% probability of a 4.00 deposit rate by then. ECB to pause in September, say slim majority of economists: Reuters poll 2023-08-11T04:00:00Z "The canal has experienced an extended dry season with high levels of evaporation, with a high probability of an El Nino condition before the end of this calendar year," the canal's authority said last month. Drought-hit Panama Canal lets more unbooked ships pass in bid to ease queue 2023-08-10T04:00:00Z The document listed West Maui as having a “highly likely” probability, or a more than 90 percent chance, of wildfires each year on average. West Maui Had Been Warned It Was at High Risk for Wildfires. 2023-08-12T04:00:00Z Kurt Krause, a lawyer representing one of the fake electors, John Haggard, said in court Thursday that “the probability of conviction is low, given the dubiousness of the factual basis asserted by the government.” More Michigan Republicans accused of being fake electors for Trump plead not guilty 2023-08-10T04:00:00Z It’s not so likely that you lose three in a row, though, because the probability is only one in eight. The Gambling Strategy That's Guaranteed to Make Money and Why You Should Never Use It 2023-08-10T04:00:00Z The coroner asked the pathologist: "On the balance of probabilities, do you still feel aspergillus has had a part in Luke's death?" Luke Brooks: Mould played part in death, inquest hears 2023-08-08T04:00:00Z |
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