| 单词 | probabilistic |
| 例句 | Many mathematical problems are so intractable, and experiments involving them so expensive, that this kind of probabilistic simulation is the only alternative to giving up on them. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z A very long hitting streak in baseball is a particularly amazing sort of record, so unlikely as to seem virtually unachievable and almost immune to probabilistic prediction. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Such probabilistic information can then influence sentencing recommendations and bail amounts, so it's hardly trivial. How Facebook could get you arrested 2013-03-09T19:20:01Z What’s causing this new study to create waves is the degree to which its authors say they’ve reduced uncertainty, using “new probabilistic projections.” 11 billion people by 2100? Solving the world’s problems just got a lot harder than we thought 2014-09-19T04:00:00Z We are victims of priming and stereotyping, confirmation bias and the conjunction fallacy, probabilistic incoherence, the default effect and goodness only knows what else. Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes by Maria Konnikova – review 2013-01-04T15:19:54Z When you sidle up to the edge of nature, you cross into a zone of proximal admiration; you also cross into the land of probabilistic danger. On Top of Mount Etna, a Lesson in Lava (and Luck) 2018-01-18T05:00:00Z “The equation of luck and skill is, at its heart, probabilistic,” Konnikova writes. How a Writer With a Ph.D. in Psychology Became a Poker Champ 2020-06-23T04:00:00Z One, known as probabilistic event attribution, is used to estimate how much human behavior has contributed to the odds of a certain kind of event occurring, such as a heat wave. When Disaster Strikes, Is Climate Change to Blame? 2023-06-15T04:00:00Z We show that they exist using the probabilistic method. Why 2 Is the Best Number and Other Secrets from a MacArthur-Winning Mathematician 2022-11-22T05:00:00Z These fields allow particles to appear and disappear, all in accordance with both the strict dictates of Einstein’s special relativity and the probabilistic laws of the quantum world. Quantum Particles Aren’t Spinning. So Where Does Their Spin Come From? 2022-11-22T05:00:00Z Entanglement also implies that the two electrons, before you measure them, do not have a fixed spin; they exist in a probabilistic limbo. The Beauty at the Heart of a “Spooky” Mystery 2022-10-24T04:00:00Z Such efforts paved the way for the probabilistic forecasts used today, which predict the chance of rain in a given hour and provide the “cone of uncertainty” for hurricane tracks. Uncertainty Can Speed Up Climate Action 2022-10-15T04:00:00Z The report's expectation that the price of renewables will continue to fall is based on "probabilistic" modelling, using data on how massive investment and economies of scale have made other similar technologies cheaper. Switching to renewable energy could save trillions - study 2022-09-13T04:00:00Z At the quantum scale, matter is described by a wave function, which leads to a probabilistic description of the microscopic world. College Physics for AP Courses 2015-08-12T00:00:00Z The quantum mechanical model of atoms describes the three-dimensional position of the electron in a probabilistic manner according to a mathematical function called a wavefunction, often denoted as ψ. Chemistry 2019-02-14T00:00:00Z Had he investigated both linked and unlinked genes, it would have been much more difficult for him to create a unified model of his data on the basis of probabilistic calculations. Biology for AP Courses 2022-06-09T00:00:00Z Abduction is probabilistic form of inference in which an explanation is offered to justify and explain evidence. Introduction to Philosophy 2022-06-15T00:00:00Z It might seem odd, but the same issues come up even in probabilistic exercises as basic as flipping a coin. How Unlikely Is It That the Audits of Comey and McCabe Were a Coincidence? A Statistical Exploration. 2022-07-07T04:00:00Z The probabilistic description of matter is modeled by a wave function, which can be assigned to an object and used to describe its motion and interactions. College Physics for AP Courses 2015-08-12T00:00:00Z Noting that the FAA’s decision-making process is “qualitative and relies on engineering judgment,” it recommends a more quantitative failure analysis and suggests the probabilistic risk analysis used by the the U.S. Independent report recommends changes after FAA’s faulty 737 MAX risk assessment 2022-06-23T04:00:00Z "Some people like art history," he once explained, "I like probabilistic analysis." Meet the billionaire and rising GOP mega-donor who’s gaming the tax system 2022-06-21T04:00:00Z Induction is a probabilistic form of inference in which observation or experience is used to draw conclusions about the world. Introduction to Philosophy 2022-06-15T00:00:00Z “Any probabilistic analysis means zero valuation,” Taleb said in an email to The Post. The crypto-skeptics’ voices are getting louder 2022-06-03T04:00:00Z These probabilistic limits on measurement are described by Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, which connects wave-particle duality to the non-absolute properties of space and time. College Physics for AP Courses 2015-08-12T00:00:00Z There may be times there’s a probabilistic outcome, and so that there may be one or two elements in it which we fail. Vergecast: Google CEO Sundar Pichai on Google I/O 2022 2022-05-13T04:00:00Z But he warns that all forecasts are “probabilistic,” not certainties, and that “volatile” severe cold snaps should still be expected in the months ahead. Sinking natural gas prices are a sign of hope for household winter heating bills. 2021-12-07T05:00:00Z From a strictly probabilistic standpoint, it is exceptionally unlikely that an extinction-level event deriving from an asteroid will occur in our lifetimes. NASA spacecraft will test asteroid deflection methods 2021-11-21T05:00:00Z Ranking algorithms in social feeds are probabilistic — they show you things based on how likely you are to like, share, or comment on them. How Twitter got research right 2021-11-19T05:00:00Z The discussion of this probabilistic interpretation supports Big Idea 7 of the AP Physics Curriculum Framework. College Physics for AP Courses 2015-08-12T00:00:00Z The same probabilistic approach also means they can stumble over common sense questions. The future of AI is a conversation with a computer 2021-11-01T04:00:00Z He noted that NOAA’s winter outlook is a probabilistic forecast, meaning it reflects the likelihood of what will happen and is not definitive. La Niña Weather Pattern Likely to Prolong Western Drought, NOAA Says 2021-10-21T04:00:00Z Likewise, when New York City was forced to disclose the source code of its own probabilistic genotyping program, a defense expert found a bug that tended to overestimate a defendant’s likelihood of guilt. A secret algorithm is transforming DNA evidence. This defendant could be the first to scrutinize it. 2021-07-12T04:00:00Z Gensini and Allen will be continuing to make long-term probabilistic tornado forecasts up to four weeks in advance. Busy tornado season projected across the southern U.S. this spring 2021-02-25T05:00:00Z At the quantum scale, matter is described by a wave function, which leads to a probabilistic description of the microscopic world. College Physics for AP Courses 2015-08-12T00:00:00Z Here’s another: some physicists, dissatisfied with probabilistic quantum accounts of electrons and photons, seek to explain their behavior in terms of “hidden variables” that follow deterministic rules. Can Science Illuminate Our Inner Dark Matter? 2021-02-06T05:00:00Z This strategy could be applied to all evidence-based decision-making to help get people more comfortable with the nature of probabilistic outcomes while keeping larger goals in mind. Now Is the Time to Reestablish Reality 2021-01-12T05:00:00Z He said issues with probabilistic genotyping software come to light by running test samples and examining the results. A secret algorithm is transforming DNA evidence. This defendant could be the first to scrutinize it. 2021-07-12T04:00:00Z I favor the pilot-wave model, which insists that particles are … particles, and not probabilistic blurs. Quantum Mechanics, the Mind-Body Problem and Negative Theology 2020-12-15T05:00:00Z The probabilistic description of matter is modeled by a wave function, which can be assigned to an object and used to describe its motion and interactions. College Physics for AP Courses 2015-08-12T00:00:00Z Other publications have since taken a similar approach, creating their own probabilistic models. ‘A black eye’: Why political polling missed the mark. Again. 2020-11-12T05:00:00Z Whether the concern is overpopulation or infertility, population science was from the start intertwined with probabilistic thinking surrounding humanity's fate. The classification of humankind, and the birth of population science 2020-11-09T05:00:00Z Human development is probabilistic rather than deterministic, and continues well beyond the first decade of life. The lifelong studies that hold clues to what today’s kids might have in store 2020-09-14T04:00:00Z “On the ground of simple probabilistic evaluations the fact of observing so many data points preserved among different experiments is highly unlikely,” the open letter said. Some scientists spot "unlikely" patterns in Russia vaccine data: letter 2020-09-09T04:00:00Z It was also deterministic rather than inherently probabilistic, so experimental results could, in principle, be predicted with certainty, if only physicists understood more about the system’s hidden properties. This Twist on Schrödinger’s Cat Paradox Has Major Implications for Quantum Theory 2020-08-17T04:00:00Z The New York Times, which in 2016 had given Clinton an 85% chance of winning, did not create a probabilistic model this year. ‘A black eye’: Why political polling missed the mark. Again. 2020-11-12T05:00:00Z With a little probabilistic hand-waving it is then possible to argue that we are most likely simulated. Could We Force the Universe to Crash? 2020-08-10T04:00:00Z “For something like an illness, most of the evidence is usually indirect, and people are very bad at dealing with explicit probabilistic information,” Dr. Gopnik said. How to Think Like an Epidemiologist 2020-08-04T04:00:00Z In the probabilistic language the agency uses to describe the season ahead, there is a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, and just a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. Scientists Predict ‘Busy’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid Virus Crisis 2020-05-21T04:00:00Z But quantum theory appears to be inherently probabilistic. This Twist on Schrödinger’s Cat Paradox Has Major Implications for Quantum Theory 2020-08-17T04:00:00Z “They were some of the first persons to show that probabilistic methods are central to mathematics. Now it is totally obvious.” Abel Prize in Mathematics Shared by 2 Trailblazers of Probability and Dynamics 2020-03-18T04:00:00Z The electron exists as a kind of probabilistic blur until you observe it, when it “collapses,” in physics lingo, into a single position. Multiverse Theories Are Bad for Science 2019-11-30T05:00:00Z “I’m not sure people understand how these probabilistic projections are produced or what they mean,” Gary Langer, a pollster who works with ABC News, said in an email. Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020 2019-11-23T05:00:00Z Importantly, the resulting laws are probabilistic, not deterministic, meaning that they accommodate the element of chance. History as a giant data set: how analysing the past could help save the future 2019-11-12T05:00:00Z Clue said its “probabilistic statistical model” for the hormonal imbalance offered a “smart assessment that can be shared with doctors.” These Apps Say You May Have a Health Disorder. What if They’re Wrong? 2019-10-27T04:00:00Z Conversely, qubits are, by nature, probabilistic, so trying to clump them together to perform one bulk measurement will not work. Hands-On with Google’s Quantum Computer 2019-10-24T04:00:00Z “It’s simply the result of the probabilistic nature of the machine learning classifiers used by the demonetization bot,” Sealow’s report adds. YouTube moderation bots punish videos tagged as "gay" or "lesbian," study finds 2019-09-30T04:00:00Z A conventional probabilistic computer — one that uses silicon transistors — would require more than 1,000 transistors to complete this task. How to make computing more sustainable 2019-09-17T04:00:00Z “And generally speaking, the world meteorologists live in is one of probabilistic language.” For Forecasters, Hurricane Dorian Has Already Been a Handful 2019-08-31T04:00:00Z That might seem like a subtle distinction — mathematically accounting for probabilistic mechanisms but then predicting only averages of the resulting statistical distributions. A universal control system for synthetic gene networks 2019-06-18T04:00:00Z For instance, when we evaluate whether a particular world might harbor life we should really be looking at a layering of probabilistic phenomena. The Meaning of Life 2019-03-31T04:00:00Z New notions of proof — including probabilistic, interactive, zero-knowledge, and even quantum proofs — have seen further development by theoretical computer scientists since 1993. Okay, Maybe Proofs Aren't Dying After All 2019-03-09T05:00:00Z In reality, what they showed is that polygenic scores are so probabilistic that they probably aren't useful in predicting academic achievement scores for the purpose of making decisions that are important for individual people. In the Nature–Nurture War, Robert Plomin Is Fighting a Losing Battle 2019-01-20T05:00:00Z In the quantum world, this probabilistic nature is the physical reality. Why everyone can — and should — learn quantum mechanics 2018-11-18T05:00:00Z But for most chemical networks, in which reaction rates often depend nonlinearly on concentrations, accounting for probabilistic reactions is necessary even to predict the right averages. A universal control system for synthetic gene networks 2019-06-18T04:00:00Z That so-called probabilistic measure should, in theory, offer a better forecast because it takes into account information from all voters, not just those deemed most likely to vote. Polls point to Democratic takeover of the House, but here's what could change that - Los Angeles Times 2018-11-05T05:00:00Z What remains is, how did a commitment to probabilistic decision-making lead to the hiring of a manager with a lifetime 314-332 record with no titles? Letters: Dodgers fans worried about a Series of unfortunate events - Los Angeles Times 2018-10-26T04:00:00Z "In summary, GPS are useful for individual prediction as long as the probabilistic nature of the prediction is kept in mind." In the Nature–Nurture War, Robert Plomin Is Fighting a Losing Battle 2019-01-20T05:00:00Z In real life, these decisions are probabilistic, with individuals choosing between outcomes of different severities and degrees. Global preferences for who to save in self-driving car crashes revealed 2018-10-24T04:00:00Z Because of the uncertainty in seasonal prediction, NOAA’s winter outlook is probabilistic in nature, meaning that a range of outcomes is possible in any area. NOAA winter outlook: El Niño may mean stormy conditions in the South and Eastern U.S. 2018-10-18T04:00:00Z Genetics is a probabilistic science, and there are no genes “for” anything in particular. How Accurate Are Online DNA Tests? 2018-10-15T04:00:00Z The Angels were led to hiring Brad Ausmus, in part, because of his “probabilistic approach to decision making.” Letters: Dodgers fans worried about a Series of unfortunate events - Los Angeles Times 2018-10-26T04:00:00Z Marketers: “Within resolution, linking approaches are differentiated principally by their reliance on deterministic, probabilistic or hybrid methodologies.” Despite California privacy law, marketers are still scheming to snatch your data 2018-08-21T04:00:00Z And scientists are more careful about how they make probabilistic claims. Droughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blame 2018-07-29T04:00:00Z The interpretation also rejects the possibility that the seemingly probabilistic behavior of quantum systems stems from underlying, deterministic mechanisms. David Bohm, Quantum Mechanics and Enlightenment 2018-07-28T04:00:00Z He says ToMnet infers beliefs more efficiently than his team’s system, which is based on a more abstract form of probabilistic reasoning rather than neural networks. Computer programs can learn what other programs are ‘thinking’ 2018-07-27T04:00:00Z In loop quantum gravity, my own technical area, Newtonian space and time are reinterpreted as a manifestation of something which is granular, probabilistic and fluctuating in a quantum sense. Physics Needs Philosophy / Philosophy Needs Physics 2018-07-19T04:00:00Z The underlying principle here is probabilistic thinking, our ability to predict the truth of current and future reality based on limited information. (Dis)Trust in Science 2018-07-05T04:00:00Z Speaking of confounding topics, how about the strange, probabilistic quantum-mechanical world versus our everyday “classical” world, where everything seems to be hard and fast? Barriers between Realities: Irrational Thinking and the Quantum-Classical Divide 2018-06-19T04:00:00Z However, if the distribution of entanglement in each segment is probabilistic, the chance of success falls exponentially as the distance increases. On-demand entanglement could lead to scalable quantum networks 2018-06-12T04:00:00Z Subatomic entities exist in a probabilistic limbo of many possible “superposed” states until they are brought into focus by the act of measurement. Do Our Questions Create the World? 2018-06-09T04:00:00Z A step in the right direction are probabilistic models of extinction times. Big data little help in megafauna mysteries 2018-06-05T04:00:00Z “You get a probabilistic sense of where the main damage will be occurring,” Weisman said. Run or Hide? Forecasters Struggle with Warnings as Disasters Change 2018-06-04T04:00:00Z Instead, we should see them for what they really are, probabilistic statements rather than natural laws, and try to improve them, by clarifying the conditions under which they do and do not hold. Do party elites and big donors still determine US elections? The verdict is out | Cas Mudde 2018-05-04T04:00:00Z By producing entanglement more quickly than it was lost, the authors turned a probabilistic protocol into a deterministic one. On-demand entanglement could lead to scalable quantum networks 2018-06-12T04:00:00Z “These scenarios weren’t designed to be probabilistic, but to span a range of possibilities,” adds Rutgers University climate scientist Bob Kopp, an expert on sea-level rise modeling, by email. Within Decades, Floods May Render Many Islands Uninhabitable 2018-04-25T04:00:00Z For these reasons, European and North American technologists and policy-makers prefer solutions that treat identity as a probabilistic - based on or adapted to a theory of probability - quantity. Viewpoint: The pitfalls of India's biometric ID scheme 2018-04-22T04:00:00Z Third, Bohr argued that we could have only probabilistic knowledge of a system: in Schrödinger’s thought experiment, a cat in a box is both dead and alive until it is seen. Einstein, Bohr and the war over quantum theory 2018-03-26T04:00:00Z Do quantum wavefunctions exist, for instance, or do these probabilistic descriptions of the world reflect our own ignorance? A trek through the probable universe 2018-03-19T04:00:00Z But another way to overcome the prohibitive scaling of quantum networks is to turn a probabilistic method into a deterministic one. On-demand entanglement could lead to scalable quantum networks 2018-06-12T04:00:00Z In the 2000s such methods also experienced their own rebirth in the form of probabilistic, or Bayesian, modeling. An AI That Knows the World Like Children Do 2018-03-08T05:00:00Z Medicine is probabilistic Bayesian exercise in epistemology - anything that adds to the original hypothesis that does not lead you astray is useful. Opinion | What Doctors Should Ignore 2017-12-08T05:00:00Z Instead of algorithms presenting deterministic “yes” or “no” results to queries, new systems are able to offer up more probabilistic inferences about the world. All the buzz at AI’s big shindig 2017-12-06T05:00:00Z Modern day 'neuroscience' loves to tell us how the brain/mind works based on probabilistic functional imaging. Can A.I. Be Taught to Explain Itself? 2017-11-21T05:00:00Z By a known probabilistic relation57, the age distribution of Y follows a gamma distribution. Genome sequence of the progenitor of the wheat D genome Aegilops tauschii 2017-11-14T05:00:00Z A probabilistic generative model can tell you how likely it is that you will see a specific pattern of data if a particular hypothesis is true. An AI That Knows the World Like Children Do 2018-03-08T05:00:00Z Eddy, S. R. A new generation of homology search tools based on probabilistic inference. A communal catalogue reveals Earth’s multiscale microbial diversity 2017-10-31T04:00:00Z Unlike classical Newtonian physics, it involves instantaneous transitions, set by probabilistic rules rather than exact, mechanistic laws. This Man Was Einstein and Bohr's Relationship Counselor 2017-11-13T05:00:00Z Feature integration drives probabilistic behavior in the Drosophila escape response. Ultra-selective looming detection from radial motion opponency 2017-11-07T05:00:00Z Many courts already accept probabilistic arguments, for example in cases of occupational hazards. Climate-change lawsuits 2017-11-02T04:00:00Z Like Newton’s definition, Einstein’s has its shortcomings—breaking down in the quantum realm where the relationships between the building blocks of matter and spacetime become vexingly probabilistic. Watch Live Today: A Bold New View of Gravity 2017-10-04T04:00:00Z Then it becomes a probabilistic wager – and we all know how bad most professional sportsmen are at gambling. Lure of cash and fame leaves sport caught in concussion’s moral maze | Sean Ingle 2017-10-02T04:00:00Z The result will be a new programming paradigm, as object-oriented, probabilistic and distributed programming once were. First quantum computers need smart software 2017-09-12T04:00:00Z Permissively filtered candidate alleles and raw sequencing data were then given as input to BayesTyper using a probabilistic model to estimate genotypes. Sequencing and de novo assembly of 150 genomes from Denmark as a population reference : Nature : Nature Research 2017-07-25T04:00:00Z That “probabilistic standard” is not designed “to elicit a definitive finding of deceit or racism,” he said. California's top court overturns convictions because prosecutor excluded Latinos from jury 2017-06-02T04:00:00Z The dense, dizzying script flips back and forth in time, oft-repeating key scenes, themes and images, while tossing off such chipper phrases as “probabilistic inertia,” “negation points,” “cryptochrome proteins” and “electrostatic reorientation.” You may need AP physics to keep up with mind-bending sci-fi thriller 'Displacement' 2017-04-27T04:00:00Z Some scientists in Germany have expressed concern that allowing such techniques, whose scientific status often masks their probabilistic nature in the eyes of the public, risks unleashing discrimination against minorities. Forensics: Germany considers wider use of DNA evidence in criminal cases 2017-03-26T04:00:00Z “Namely that this subjective emergent probabilistic phenomenon that you call the sensorium is consciousness.” Mr Singularity : Nature : Nature Research 2017-03-21T04:00:00Z Permissively filtered candidate alleles and raw sequencing data were then given as input to BayesTyper using a probabilistic model to estimate genotypes. Sequencing and de novo assembly of 150 genomes from Denmark as a population reference : Nature : Nature Research 2017-07-25T04:00:00Z “I assign probabilities. It is my job to help humans choose the probabilistic paths that will best lead to species survival. For that I need data.” The last robot : Nature : Nature Research 2017-01-24T05:00:00Z A newcomer to analysis could be forgiven for underestimating the value of successive articles about the same country, region or city that share similar probabilistic and estimative language. Five myths about the President’s Daily Brief 2016-12-29T05:00:00Z It is important to note, however, that the fact that neural networks are probabilistic in nature means that they’re not suitable for all tasks. The Great A.I. Awakening 2016-12-14T05:00:00Z Essentially, they aggregate poll numbers and use some simulation software to covert them into unidimensional probabilistic forecasts. Media Culpa? The Press and the Election Result 2016-11-11T05:00:00Z To this end, the study used a probabilistic approach to examine how sea levels would vary across the world’s coasts under a worst-case warming scenario by the year 2100. Why scientists are so worried about sea-level rise in the second half of this century 2016-11-07T05:00:00Z At almost negligible particle densities, and in cold far more frigid than the farthest reaches of space, the rules of physics that govern the everyday world give way to the probabilistic regime of quantum mechanics. Deborah Jin, government physicist who won MacArthur ‘genius’ grant, dies at 47 2016-09-20T04:00:00Z Through his study of Dr. Raiffa’s work, Summers became enamored of probabilistic thinking, or reasoning according to probability — a trait that did not escape Obama’s notice. Howard Raiffa, economist who made a science of decision-making, dies at 92 2016-07-22T04:00:00Z Quantum computing promises exponential boosts in processing power, in part by harnessing the probabilistic nature inherent to the physics discipline. Android inventor Andy Rubin thinks the future of smartphones might be a single AI 2016-06-14T04:00:00Z Instead they use machine learning to build a probabilistic model of how words are related to each other in a text. This AI company is teaching computers to read like humans do 2016-06-08T04:00:00Z But the researchers from Disney combined probabilistic modeling and a Monte Carlo-based sampling method to deliver readings with typical delays of 200 milliseconds. Disney Research uses RFID tags to make ordinary objects smart 2016-05-12T04:00:00Z The language is not designed to inform or to describe probabilistic, data-driven models of a complex and nuanced global economy; rather, it is “look at me” talk and nothing more than marketing. What are the chances of a recession? Not what you’d think. 2016-04-01T04:00:00Z “All this is kind of--in mathematical terms--a probabilistic thing,” Bond said. L.A. recorded its hottest February on record 2016-02-29T05:00:00Z But if these scenarios were imaginable, then they were predictable in a ballpark probabilistic sense. We didn’t see Donald Trump coming. But we could have. 2016-02-12T05:00:00Z Einstein's heyday coincided with the birth of quantum mechanics, and the stories of his debates with physicist Niels Bohr over the theory's counterintuitive and probabilistic predictions are legendary. Einstein's Unfinished Dream: Marrying Relativity to the Quantum World 2015-11-24T05:00:00Z Mass spectrometry is a probabilistic method, says Omenn, and there is no way to exclude the possibility that two different proteins produced the same peptide sequence. Proteomics: High-protein research : Nature : Nature Publishing Group 2015-11-03T05:00:00Z One of the biggest mysteries of quantum physics is the process of collapse, which is the transition between the probabilistic quantum world and the world of definite things we see around us. A living thing in two places at once? This quantum quandary test is limited 2015-10-01T04:00:00Z This would enable more reliable probabilistic predictions of Earth's future climate. Modelling: Build imprecise supercomputers 2015-09-28T04:00:00Z The firm uses a “unique probabilistic approach,” according to a presentation the firm made last year at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. An Obscure Hedge Fund Is Buying Tens of Billions of Dollars of U.S. Treasurys 2015-09-08T04:00:00Z The more general issue is this: In order to use polls to make probabilistic statements about politicians, you need to be clear about what uncertainties you are hoping that poll can help resolve. How Fox Failed Statistics in Explaining Its G.O.P. Debate Decision 2015-08-06T04:00:00Z For example, the World Agroforestry Centre assessed the relative benefits of agricultural interventions for developing regions by calibrating experts for how well they estimated probabilities and by holding workshops to define a probabilistic model5. Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making 2015-07-07T04:00:00Z For example, Einstein was uncomfortable with the probabilistic nature of aspects of quantum mechanics, which Bohr accepted. Einstein-Bohr Friendship Recounted By Bohr's Grandson 2015-06-19T04:00:00Z But in a quantum computer, elementary particles inhabit a probabilistic limbo called superposition where a “qubit” can be coded as 0 and 1. Analog Simulators Could Be Shortcut to Universal Quantum Computers 2015-05-06T04:00:00Z Starting in the late 1920s, one of his primary goals was a deterministic alternative to probabilistic quantum theory, as developed by Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, Max Born, and others. “Albert is an old fool”: Einstein vs Schrödinger in battle of the Nobel laureates 2015-04-18T04:00:00Z And there was a ready audience of probabilistic speculators, in the form of displaced online poker players, with an established track record of spending money to make money online. When Fantasy Sports Beat Real Ones 2015-04-06T04:00:00Z These analysts would work with decision-makers and subject experts to clarify key intervention decisions and develop probabilistic models of alternative actions. Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making 2015-07-07T04:00:00Z For one thing, it deeply confuses the human brain, which evolved to focus on the present, not the far future, and on readily perceivable movements, not slow and probabilistic developments. Climate Change vs. Conservation 2015-03-30T04:00:00Z Mike Smith, a meteorologist from AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions and a weather historian, thinks that Joslyn’s work is fine in theory but sees some real challenges to probabilistic forecasts in practicality. Here's the One Simple Way To Fix Weather Forecasts 2015-01-27T05:00:00Z I think it would have been better to have been clear up front that the case for 2014 is probabilistic, not set in stone. How 'Warmest Ever' Headlines and Debates Can Obscure What Matters About Climate Change 2015-01-21T05:00:00Z They use a statistical technique called probabilistic estimation in which probabilities are assigned to estimated or unknown figures. Higher water mark 2015-01-15T05:00:00Z The car records data using lasers, radar and cameras mounted on its roof and windshield, and it makes rapid probabilistic predictions based on what the observed objects have been doing. Death by Robot 2015-01-09T05:00:00Z It is quite possible for intelligent people to go through school and never be taught probabilistic thinking, scientific reasoning, and other strategies measured by the XYZ virus puzzle and the four-card selection task described earlier. Rational and Irrational Thought: The Thinking that IQ Tests Miss 2014-12-26T05:00:00Z But this relationship is probabilistic rather than certain. Eyetracking Technology Aims to Take Your Unconscious Pizza Order 2014-12-09T05:00:00Z One wonky but objective way to see this is to look at the forecasters’ Brier scores, which are often used to gauge the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts. Why Didn’t Anyone See the G.O.P. Tidal Wave Coming? 2014-11-07T05:00:00Z Yet 3- and 4-year-olds answer at random when asked which colour will be pulled from the container, and older children who passed that task struggled at more complicated tests of probabilistic reasoning. Humans have innate grasp of probability 2014-11-02T04:00:00Z One that Rhodin talked about is the need to educate the market that Watson was designed as a probabilistic, rather than a deterministic system. IBM Reinvents Itself By Establishing A Frontier Homestead For Cognitive Computing 2014-10-27T04:00:00Z One aspect of mindware is probabilistic thinking, which can be measured. Rational and Irrational Thought: The Thinking that IQ Tests Miss 2014-12-26T05:00:00Z It’s not easy, but we should replace visceral reactions to a single experience or three with probabilistic thinking: What is the probability of such an event occurring in the future? The Absurd Cost of Overreaction 2014-10-20T04:00:00Z “It’s important to realize that the nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, just less likely,” Halpert told reporters during a press briefing. Frigid Polar Vortex Unlikely to Repeat This Winter 2014-10-16T04:00:00Z It goes off and specifically looks at all the options that he could do and you could do and comes up with the best solution based on probabilistic analysis. What Can the McLaren Racing Team Teach the Rest of Us? 2014-10-02T04:00:00Z The probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics means that the same measurement made on distinct, but identically prepared, qubits will yield a range values. Quantum bits get their first compression 2014-09-28T04:00:00Z The weird and wonderful world of quantum mechanics reveals that nature is at heart probabilistic. Brian Cox: 'Multiverse' makes sense 2014-09-23T04:00:00Z But technologies such as remote sensing, combined with improved analytical and probabilistic models, are making it easier, cheaper and faster to do than ever before. Guest: How to avert the next Oso landslide disaster 2014-09-18T04:00:00Z In response to these shortcomings, there are several active research programs attempting to bring richer models to bear, including but not limited to probabilistic programming and representation learning. In Search Of A Model For Modeling Intelligence 2014-08-14T04:00:00Z “It’s all probabilistic,” says Mark Williams, McLaren’s head of vehicle engineering. What Can the McLaren Racing Team Teach the Rest of Us? 2014-10-02T04:00:00Z Just as a proton is not really a tiny marble but rather a jumble of phantom particles appearing and disappearing continuously, its spin is a complex probabilistic property. Proton Spin Mystery Gains a New Clue 2014-07-21T04:00:00Z “The best way to test probabilistic forecasts is to check their calibration and to compare them against alternative probabilistic estimates.” If you can’t beat Nate Silver and the stats geeks, join ‘em. It’s a probabilistic statement, not a scientific one. What Your Cell Phone Can't Tell the Police 2014-06-26T04:00:00Z Invest Like Sharpe: Model your expected returns to your risk tolerance using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations. Sharpe: Know Your Portfolio's Expected Returns 2014-06-18T04:00:00Z This is because the "candle" is in a superposition of both states until measured, and it is probabilistic whether it will be found to be lit or not. Scientists Report Finding Reliable Way to Teleport Data 2014-05-29T04:00:00Z He holds a doctorate in computational neuroscience from MIT and co-founded two startups that used probabilistic inference. Welcome To Intelligence Matters 2014-05-14T04:00:00Z Hence the emergence of big data technologies, and their support for uncertain and evolving business processes, where analytics and probabilistic understandings are often the chief ways of deriving benefit from the data. Defining Big Data 2014-05-07T16:32:00Z Massey’s work suggests that no matter how much extra data people add to their models, the probabilistic forecasts reach a ceiling in their ability to accurately predict games. How to Fill Out Your NCAA Bracket, According to Ken Massey 2014-03-17T10:00:46Z “A lot of the features we think of as uniquely quantum are generic to many probabilistic theories.” Physics: Quantum quest 2013-09-12T13:51:03.407Z There is a difference between a deterministic and a probabilistic forecast. Why The Future Of Innovation Is Simulation 2013-07-15T11:39:00Z And none of those computations by themselves are critical, it’s all organized in a probabilistic manner. Interview: How Ray Kurzweil Plans To Revolutionize Search At Google 2013-04-29T22:16:57Z We are emotional survivalists more than we are probabilistic rationalists. The Messy (and Risky) Ways That Governments Try to Manage Risks 2013-03-01T14:45:00.360Z This involves a recognition that warfare is probabilistic and unpredictable, with large elements of disorder and uncertainty. Can Complexity Thinking Advance Management and Fix Capitalism? 2013-02-28T03:34:57Z For longer-term outlooks, which assess the risk of flooding over 3 months, the centers use a probabilistic method that provides a calculation of uncertainty. Handicapping the River's Rise 2013-02-18T15:30:55Z Security is another focus — not just control policies but doing analytics which help us understand threats, attacks and vulnerability by using a probabilistic approach that is a little more technology-centered. IBM's 20th Year Of Record U.S. Patents Leads With Cognitive Computing 2013-01-14T16:47:46Z The simulator is a probabilistic Monte Carlo model that uses statistics and results from the regular season. The Quad: Keeping Score: Characteristics of a Champion 2013-01-07T22:45:11Z Statistical speech models and a probabilistic technique called Gaussian mixture modelling are then used to identify each phoneme, before reconstructing the original word. Machine translation: Conquering Babel 2013-01-03T16:05:38Z The availability of wind, for example, naturally conforms to a probabilistic Rayleigh distribution. Guest Post: The Value of Short-term Energy Storage for Renewable Energy 2012-12-26T16:45:00.283Z As early as the mid 1980s, he began moving toward probabilistic reasoning and dealing with uncertainty. Google's Peter Norvig: 'I have the best job in the world' 2012-11-23T07:00:00Z So I cooked up a meta-analysis that took all the data and calculated a probabilistic model of where the race was likely to be. Statistics Win in U.S. Election 2012-11-15T15:45:02.907Z It is not hard to program a normal computer to model the probabilistic behaviour of that one electron, said Feynman. Simulation: Quantum leaps 2012-11-14T18:21:16.017Z The latter shortcoming is especially problematic in genetics, where testing is probabilistic by nature and thus demands a nuanced explanation to be accurate. Unnatural selection: is prenatal testing a triumph for reproductive freedom or brazen discrimination? 2012-09-17T23:45:00.213Z The French philosopher Raymond Aron captured this spirit with his notion of "probabilistic determinism," which leaves ample room for human agency. Geography Strikes Back 2012-09-08T00:46:38Z As for the second, while people don't do large blocks of arithmetic in their heads, there are analogies that can be drawn between the electrical and chemical processes in our brains to probabilistic reasoning. Google's Peter Norvig: 'I have the best job in the world' 2012-11-23T07:00:00Z Poker never lacks for suspense: you can play a hand flawlessly from a probabilistic standpoint, but there is still the possibility you’ll lose; statistical anomalies do happen. Knowing When To Fold `Em: The Science of Poker 2012-08-27T14:15:03.053Z Rather than delivering one solution, the imitator would deliver many, and the likelihood of each answer would create a probabilistic picture of how the complex system behaves. Simulation: Quantum leaps 2012-11-14T18:21:16.017Z Best guesses in medicine are probabilistic; doctors collect clues from various sources to select more likely and less likely options. When should medicine talk about race? 2012-08-25T22:45:02.807Z Another obstruction to simply multiplying probabilities in Feynman diagrams is the presence of the spurious contributions we had described in the article, which disallow a simple probabilistic interpretation of an individual diagram. Readers Respond to "Flashy Fossils" 2012-08-24T04:45:00.420Z Everything is probabilistic, nothing is deterministic, so you never have that satisfaction of knowing that you're in control of an outcome. DealBook Column: Taking a Risk, and Hoping That Lightning Strikes Twice 2012-07-24T01:59:27Z The probabilistic outcomes change again if we pit these three hands against each other, two at a time. Knowing When To Fold `Em: The Science of Poker 2012-08-27T14:15:03.053Z When a decision is verbally framed as involving a gain, humans prefer a sure outcome over a probabilistic outcome. How Knowing a Foreign Language Can Improve Your Decisions 2012-07-03T11:15:00.413Z In short, genetic screening is, and will always be, probabilistic, not deterministic. Migration from Earth: Human Evolution and Space Colonization 2012-06-15T20:15:00.223Z "It solves a probabilistic problem which is ‘what is the person most likely to say next'?" An app that lets you text like the Queen 2012-06-04T09:04:48Z More than half said that the use of probabilistic analyses should be expanded. Green Blog: How Will Nuclear Plants Stand Up to Quakes and Floods? 2012-05-29T21:57:04Z The real state 2 can be produced by either preparation method, so the same reality underlies two different probabilistic models. A boost for quantum reality 2012-05-09T17:20:50.273Z If the formally identical illness scenario is provided, but framed in terms of how many people will die, then research participants are more likely to choose the probabilistic option. How Knowing a Foreign Language Can Improve Your Decisions 2012-07-03T11:15:00.413Z “The two main changes that got us modern A.I. were probabilistic reasoning and using memory rather than rules.” David L. Waltz, Computer Science Pioneer, Dies at 68 2012-03-24T03:27:57Z Feeding historical data about hurricane occurrence and intensity into a probabilistic model, they simulated potential damage to the turbine towers over several 20-year periods and then took an average. Green Blog: Will Hurricanes Topple U.S. Wind Turbines? 2012-02-13T20:15:28Z The projections are probabilistic in nature, and no individual forecast should be taken in isolation. Another Day, Another Intentionally Distortive Effort to Discredit Climate Change 2012-01-31T01:04:10Z Worse, the system is designed not to shut off until the threat has vanished completely, but probabilistic dangers never vanish completely. Abundance: Why The Future Will Be Much Better Than You Think 2012-01-26T19:31:51Z So, what are the games to watch in 2012, from a partial and probabilistic perspective? 10 Games (and some others) for 2012 2012-01-06T16:28:59Z Discriminant analysis provides a quantitative prediction of group membership in a probabilistic framework. [Technical Response] Response to Comment on ?Nocturnality in Dinosaurs Inferred from Scleral Ring and Orbit Morphology? 2011-12-22T19:25:34.843Z "This strips away obscurity and shows you can't have an interpretation of a quantum state as probabilistic," he says. Quantum Theory's 'Wavefunction' Found to Be Real Physical Entity 2011-11-18T21:15:08.707Z Others see the case as an indictment of the obfuscating, probabilistic language with which scientists characterize the uncertain potential of natural disasters. Scientists on trial: At fault? 2011-09-14T17:21:10.677Z The end of inflation is triggered by quantum, probabilistic processes and does not occur everywhere at once. The Case for Parallel Universe 2011-07-19T15:45:00.317Z Not only do levees actually exacerbate floods, they are a static solution to a dynamic, probabilistic problem. Levees and the illusion of flood control [Explainer] 2011-05-20T14:15:00.253Z In other words, the crucial new fertility end point of 2.1 did not emerge from the new probabilistic analysis. Dubious assumptions prime population bomb 2011-05-11T17:20:07.093Z They recently printed a spreadsheet in an interim report that showed the degrees of uncertainty with regard to when humanity will hit 7 billion, calling them “probabilistic forecasts.” Pro-Planet Is Pro-Choice 2011-05-09T12:47:17Z Scientists will also have to work hard to convince the public, at least in L'Aquila, that frequent, probabilistic risk assessment is a better way to protect them than age-old traditions. Scientists on trial: At fault? 2011-09-14T17:21:10.677Z According to a probabilistic model they created, there was an 80.9% chance that bin Laden was hiding out in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he was killed last night. Geographers Had Calculated 81% Chance That Osama Was in Abbottabad 2011-05-02T22:56:54Z Often we characterize our earthquake hazard with some kind of probabilistic map. When Will Japan's Aftershocks Stop? 2011-04-07T21:45:02.310Z Martin S. Ewing Branford, Conn. “Idiotic” would be a more accurate than “probabilistic” as a characterization of the risk model used by the nuclear industry. Nuclear Reactions (3 Letters) 2011-04-04T21:59:55Z “Japanese safety rules generally are deterministic because probabilistic methods are too difficult,” Mr. Nakao said, adding that “the U.S. has a lot more risk assessment methods.” Nuclear Rules in Japan Relied on Old Science 2011-03-26T22:29:42Z Medicine, which is mainly the act of mending such processes, was until recently a glorious form of trial-and-error, augmented by a web of probabilistic models that output the creation of treatments. Can Science Eliminate Disease? 2011-03-21T20:37:41Z Based on information from satellites and other remote sensing systems, and reports on his movements since his last known location, the students created a probabilistic model of where he was likely to be. Geographers Had Calculated 81% Chance That Osama Was in Abbottabad 2011-05-02T22:56:54Z You do a quantitative risk analysis, sometimes called a probabilistic risk analysis. Should Japan's Nuclear Reactor Crisis Kill the Nuclear Renaissance? 2011-03-17T19:15:00.323Z “What’s surprising in our study is that action games improved probabilistic inference not just for the act of gaming, but for unrelated and rather dull tasks,” Bavelier says. Video Mayhem Enlivens Decision Making 2010-09-14T14:41:00Z He was trying to produce probabilistic ways to make evaluations that could work. The Passing of a Climate Warrior 2010-07-19T17:06:00Z In recent years the Met Office has increasingly expressed its forecasts in probabilistic language, hedged with error bars. 2010-01-16T14:15:00Z “Beyond his core technical work, he was an omnipresent and passionate proponent of the probabilistic approach to A.I., on the promise of building intelligent computing systems that could learn and reason under uncertainty.” 2010-01-10T07:17:00Z Those who get a lot of practice, say, killing zombies attacking from haphazard directions in a shifting, postapocalyptic landscape pump up their probabilistic inference powers, Bavelier proposes. Video Mayhem Enlivens Decision Making 2010-09-14T14:41:00Z |
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